Which Champions Will Keep Their Crowns In Kazan? Form Guide: Women’s 4x100m Medley

Aussie challengers for the crown (clockwise) Emily Seebohm, Emma Mckeon, Cate Campbell and Taylor Mckeown - images by Patrick B. Kraemer and Swimming Australia

Who is shaping up for a knockout in Kazan at world titles in August? Which teams are looking strong? Our guide reaches the relays, USA’s women looking vulnerable as they approach the defence of the 4x100m medley crown. Australia stands in the way, Denmark threatening

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Who is shaping up for a knockout in Kazan at world titles in August? Which teams are looking strong? Our guide reaches the relays, USA’s women looking vulnerable as they approach the defence of the 4x100m medley crown. Australia stands in the way, Denmark threatening

Comments

petriasfan

I think you may wish to change the picture on the main page of this article. In the bottom left hand corner, you have Leiston Pickett pictured for the breaststroke. Pickett is not on the Australian team. Maybe a picture of Taylor McKeown or Lorna Tonks would be better.

Jim C

You should also do corrections in the other direction, giving swimmers like Sjostrom and Ledecky in the 200 free adjusted credit for fast relay swims. With an RT of 0.18 Ledecky’s Pan Pac relay anchor of 3:55.36 was worth a solo swim 0.50s slower.

Viva la Bang

Don’t discount GBR in this event, they can surprise here.

Torchbearer

My prediction is IF Seebom finally brings a killer split to the relay (a 58.50) it should be all over. Depth is vital in this relay and Australia has it.
However she never seems to fire for the medley relay.
This will be much closer than we have seen for many years. The cosey AUS-USA duo will have some company down the last straight!

aswimfan

CL,,
When did MIE Nielsen swim than 58.62.
Afaik, her PB is 59.14 from earlier this year.

aswimfan

In the past recent years, normally it’s China which provide that third party for the USA-AUS duo. Haven’t heard much fast times from them lately, but do not discount them for bronze either.

Verram

I thought mie nielaens pb was around 59.14

robbos

Craig, thanks for these updates, I particularly like the updates on the relays as there are so many variables can upset form. Some individuals perform better in relays then in Individual & others the opposite. Love it.

I think it’s a 3 horse race, Denmark has no margin for error & even then is 3rd favourite.

The match up between US & Aus, first the best 2 backstrokers in the world Franklin & Seebohm goes head to head again. Then the US should get the lead in the breaststroke leg but Aus improving, Aus should also make up most of that deficit with McKeon, the biggest improver in world butterfly sprints & I believe C1 will take Australia home.

roy

If seebohm delivers a solid split on backstroke,then I believe it will be all over. Taylor McKeown may not be able to keep up with breeja Larson or jessica hardy (I don,t think Katie meili is swimming at the world championships) but Emma McKeon can close the gap and cate Campbell can take it home. But seebohm had a knee injury recently. Will she be in shape by the time Kazan comes along? If not Madison Wilson can take her place. Madison Wilson is improving and has gone sub 59 but has not been tested on the international stage. aswimfan I don,t think China will challenge for a bronze medal. They have a good backstroker in fu yuanhui and a good butterflier in Chen xinyi but their breaststroke leg is weak and we don’t know what shen duo will come up with in their freestyle leg.

Craig Lord

It is Verram – my brainstorm 🙂 corrected

Craig Lord

Not discounting them, aswimfan, they are mentioned but breaststroke and freestyle of late don’t stack up to being able to compete with denmark, for e.g.. we shall see…

Craig Lord

see verram… same answer, aswimfan 🙂

Craig Lord

Yes, Viva… 3:57 last year and can improve but might need some 2 sec or so off to be in the hunt

Craig Lord

I haven’t done the 4x200s yet, Jimc

Craig Lord

Thanks Petria… overlooked, now Taylor 🙂

Luigi

Viva: GBR will be without Sophie Taylor on breaststroke, so are now unlikely to be competitive

Craig Lord

Luigi: Sophie is on the GBR squad for Kazan (unless you know something we don’t)

Luigi

Craig, it was reported 2 weeks or so ago on British swimming website that she was taking a break from swimming and would not be competing in Kazan.

A Green

When as Taylor Mckeown done a 1.06.57

Craig Lord

Thanks Luigi. Missed that in the welter of FINA farce – http://www.swimvortex.com/specials/fina-future/ – . Well, GBR not gold contender but still has a decent medley relay if it fits the program – at best Lizzie 59; Siobhan 1:07; Jemma 57; Fran 53 – not bad.

Craig Lord

A Green, she hasn’t – the copy notes that the time is her best 100 (1:07.07) minus 0.5, applied to all in the piece who have a solo best better than anything that they have swum in a relay split (mainly because of lack of opportunity in global waters so far…)

Viva la Bang

Oh ok missed that as well, without Taylor at her best will be very hard to medal in this event.

Dee

I’d also missed the news about Sophie – Such a shame, I can’t say her decision is particularly surprising Though. Extremely talented young lady.

Viva la Bang

Would Fran get the anchor leg, with Siobhan winning the 100m free at trials?

Craig Lord

She would in my scenario, Viva 🙂 with Siobhan on breaststroke

Viva la Bang

Rachel Kelley went 57.7 in the fly at trials, not fast enough? Iknow the qualifying times were insane!

Danjohnrob

What a difference a few years make!. This should be a very exciting race! It seems quite unlikely to me that the US could have enough of a lead going into the freestyle leg to hold off Cate Campbell, but I hope they can hold off the Danes, Swedes, etc…

Craig Lord

Yes, Viva, Rachel could well be the one to put in on fly and she will be there.

peter

Australia will win easy. Is Russia competing or have they exceeded their number of positives?

Craig Lord

Peter, Russia will race at home … by a slither they bypassed the four in one nation caught by others not at home with a specific period of time.

commonwombat

Barring breaks or utterly disastrous splits by someone; AUS & USA should medal. DEN are “right there” IF their quartet are on their very best but they haven’t the safety net of resting them for heats.

SWE are sunk, medal-wise, by the lack of a back-stroker and their breastroker is off lead pace. GBR on 2014 times was perhaps an outside shot but so far on 2015 times, looks out of it.

AUS problem leg is potentially BRS but McKeown’s advance probably cuts the 1.5-2.0sec haemorrhage with Tonks in half. USA is probably contending for lead with DEN at half-way but this is where it falls away. USA FLY remains problematic and potentially dropping over a second to major contenders. DEN may actually have a narrow lead at final change but if AUS is within 1sec, maybe even up to 1.3sec C1 should be the deciding factor.

STIRLO

Very sad to hear about Sophie Taylor – huge blow for GB. Hopefully she’ll be back for Rio.

Personal Best

Very excited to see McKeown’s progress. She’s been doing so well sondiering her little set backs in previous years.

Crazy to think that no Aussie breaststroker has been fast and consistently so in the 100m since Leisel Jones (and Brooke Hanson… but we’re talking about 1:05s here).

In fact, both Breast and Fly legs are slower than they were 10 years ago.
Hopefully that will change this year.

commonwombat

PB, there’s been a little of the “double edged sword” with McKeown’s progress in the 100. She’s continued her forward progress of 2014 in the 100 but her 200 has, perhaps, fallen away from her 2014 where she finished World Ranked 4th after excellent domestic and international showings. She was beaten by Wallace at Trials and has been a second off her repeat 2.22s from 2014.

GBswim

I think the Danish women know they have the strength in every stroke to challenge Australia and USA, the usual relay 1-2 with other strong nations fighting for Bronze. In Kazan, Denmark will be going for Gold.

In Kazan, I believe it’s a race between the 3. Australia the strongest team and favourite for Gold – their front and back ends clearly the quickest in the world.
USA are never to be discounted in a relay.it will be interesting to see what form Franklin is in – if she can stay with Seebohm on the backstroke and how Manuel fares against Campbell.
Nielsen is still a teenager and split 59.14 earlier this year – more tun capable of -59 in Kazan. Pedersen – better over 200 but will keep Denmark in it against T. McKeown and B. Larson.
Ottessen vs E. McKeown vs Stewart will be interesting. Expect Emma and Janette to split 56’s where as Stewart will struggle to go -57.5.
Finally, we know the force of Campbell on a relay anchor. A -52.5 and even a 51 should see Australia home. Blume and Manuel will contest though.

Shame to hear about the news of Sophie Taylor for GB. Hopefully she is back for Rio and the team will look like:

Back: Quigley /Davies /Simmonds
Breast: Taylor
Fly: O’Connor / Kelly
Free: Halsall / O’Connor

GBswim

Gold: Australia
Silver: Denmark
Bronze: USA

Other finalists: Russia, China, Japan, Sweden and possibly GBR.

Danjohnrob

@GBSwim: Regarding Franklin and, “…if she can stay with Seebohm on the backstroke”; are you kidding me?! I think history tells us Missy can stay with her! The bigger question is whether Seebohm will be in the race at all or need to be replaced by Wilson as a result of her recent injury. However, I agree that the gold is Australia’s to lose and that Denmark and the US will be fighting over the minor medals.

aswimfan

The key for Australia is whether their breaststroker (I assume mcKeown) can keep up within 1.5 seconds from US breaststrokers. If she does, AUS will win, but if she is slower than 2 seconds, then USA wins it.

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