USA’S Melanie Margalis Bound For Kazan With 2:10.26 Momentum in 200 Medley

Melanie Margalis by Peter Bick

A 2:10.26 clocking in the 200 individual medley gave Melanie Margalis some momentum a month out from the World Championships.

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A 2:10.26 clocking in the 200 individual medley gave Melanie Margalis some momentum a month out from the World Championships.

Comments

Craig Lord

Kanako Watanabe is no stranger to the 200IM, Roy: she was 18 sub-2:13s (in 32 swims) to her name in past 3 seasons

Bad Anon

Me thinks medals will be between Hosszu, Ye, SMOC and maybe Belmonte… Absence of Coutts this summer opened a podium spot that’s for sure.

Peter Lee

Craig, what exactly is Melanie’s weakest stroke? It’s really quite difficult to tell from the events she swims and this 200 medley :]

Bad Anon

Ye has only been 2.11 this season presumably untapered ; she’ll be more of a dark horse this summer, I wouldn’t hasten to count her out

Kim Simonsen

Hosszu rested will do a sub 2.07 in Kazan – and take the gold.

Bad Anon

sub 2.07 would require a 27fly, 31back 36breast and 29free; top IMers will be able to get 2splits right but all of them simply not gonna happen. at best Hosszu was barely under 2.08; 2.07.92 just 0.08below the barrier, Ye at her absolute best was 2.07mid which is a very respectable effort ; 2.07.57 textile best will survive a few worlds cycles imo

John Lohn

A sub-2:07 effort in 200 medley is not going to happen. And if it does, it will stir up questions in my mind about its legitimacy and cleanliness.

Craig Lord

I agree with that, John.

DDias

I disagree!I would be surprised with a 2:06.99, but there is several times along the years in a fantastic range(like Ledecky and Sarah 50 fly).
It will take a “out of this World time” to impress me more than Sarah 24.4 50 fly.Even a Peaty 25.99 50breast would not be close to that.

I don’t think we will see a 2:06 but I think there is a chance we will see awfully close to that, like 2:07.20 give or take a bit IF Hosszu hits her taper.

Craig Lord

DDias – you are comparing careers with a wholly different nature and age range, not comparable when making the kind of point you make. A 2:07.2 would be stunning from anyone, including the favourite.

I think you’re playing down what a textile 2:07 would mean.

KH fully rested season best:

2014:2:08.11
2013 2:07.92
2012 2:10.68
2011: 2:11.24
2010: 2:10.09

DDias

Craig,
I think Katinka is a much better swimmer than in 2013.Of course, that don’t means she will swim a lot faster, if she is still swimming 923342354 events per session.

Bad Anon

Anything under 2.10 is world class, beyond that is truly exceptional ; we may see a 2.07high as 2im comes early in the schedule ,day 1 to be specific ; SMoc just 0.2 away from a 2.07; 2.06 2im is probably the equivalent of 1.42 in men’s 2free ~out of this world!

Craig Lord

DDias, ‘much better’ stretches a point (esp. at that speed); medley times, peak, around same (some good lessons learned), fly slower, breaststroke better, backstroke improvement so significant that any drop to what it would take to win come the big one would be truly extraordinary. Choices, choices…

aswimfan

Margalis will have to drop her PB by 2 seconds if she wants to medal in Kazan because 2:08 low is where I think bronze will be won.

Craig Lord

That is what KH did in 2013 for gold, of course (textile), aswimfan

Bad Anon

And in Barcelona it took 2.09mid to medal, Aswimfan is making really ambitious projections ; to date the fastest bronze medal winning time in textile is 2.08.95 by Leverenz at the super fast London Olympic final. Hosszu and SMOC are capable of 2.08low. If Ye can come to the party then Aswimfan may very well be right

aswimfan

Craig,

Hosszu swam 2:07.92 in Barcelona.

All Hosszu, SMOC and Shiwen are capable of swimming 2:07, or 2:08low at least. Of course the three of them may not all swim 2:07 or 2:08 low at the same time, but they are all capable and have swum the 2:08low.

Hence, in order to win a medal, a 200IMer must be prepared to swim 2:08 low.

Craig Lord

Yes, aswimfan, my comment was in reply to your assertion that Mel Margalis needs to drop 2sec to get in the mix… which is a touch less than the improvement made by KH to take gold in that time in 2013.

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