The Chase Is On: Kalisz Searching For Time Drop in 400 Medley To Contend In Rio

Chase Kalisz of the United States of America (USA) competes in the men's 400m Individual Medley (IM) Heats during the FINA Swimming World Championships at Kazan arena in Kazan, Russia, 9 August 2015.
Chase Kalisz by Patrick B. Kraemer

Coming off his victory in the 400 individual medley at the United States Olympic Trials, Chase Kalisz will need to drop some time to battle for gold with the Japanese tandem of Kosuke Hagino and Daiya Seto.

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Comments

commonwombat

I think John has summarised Kalisz’s situation quite aptly. He is in the invidious situation of being the man expected to maintain a massive US tradition in this event but from the usual position of dominance.

He is, in effect, an underdog; one that can be seen as a very real medal contender without quite being a sure bet ….. and needing to find a new level if he’s to uphold the tradition.

Adams ?? Plus point is that she has demonstrated a capacity to perform at the highest level having finalled in London & medalled in Kazan.

However, the issue that she faces is that she has never broken 2.06 and the race in Rio will most likely require something significantly below that mark to be in the medal picture. Whilst Groves is a question mark at international competition, other lead contenders have marks in major meets significantly quicker than Adams.

aswimfan

Unless Adams pull a Hyman, I don’t see her taking gold, and she may not even medal what with Hoshi, Belmonte, Hentke, Grovers having faster current swims ahead of her.
I could see more possibility the two Chinese girls pull a vintage 2008 Zige-Liuyang than Adams pull a 2000 Hyman.

kevin roose

Looking at the four finals night one kalisz appears on paper anyway to be Americas best hope for gold ……
Not discounting jaeger hopes either cause you just dont know what Yang* and Horton will do , Guy and Detti in the mix ……

commonwombat

Fair summation, ASF. I’m not seeing her as anywhere near a front-line gold contender and she’s most likely needing a slow race or significant PB to medal. Not impossible, of course, but definitely a Hyman Mk II required.

Craig Lord

The point you make on Adams is valid, CW. I have added a sentence for context in a race that John is right to say is open in that a couple of the main contenders have not gone best for a couple of seasons, those in the middle of contenders could step up or down – and new contenders are on the cusp of the group.

John Lohn

Just to clarify, it was not written that Adams would contend for gold. Rather, she has a chance at a medal (any color) to break the USA’s longest streak without one.

Craig Lord

Quite so, John. Thanks

aswimfan

John,
Yes thanks for the clarification. I did not realize USA never won w200 fly Olympics medal since 2000.
Even a medal will still be a not so easy task for Adams, with 6 swimmers currently ahead of her in the world ranking, all of whom will feature heavily in Rio final.

commonwombat

Maybe not all 5, ASF, but it would be a reasonable sound bet that at least 4 of them should.

The one area where I may express a small difference of opinion with John regards the USA W4XMED and its breaststroke leg specifically. I would contend that barring an utterly disastrous meet, King would have this leg locked down.

Indeed, she is the potential “gamechanger” for this relay. Presuming their opening leg is at minimum competent and hands over within 0.5sec of the lead, she has the capacity to put this race out of range of their key competitors on this leg.

Should she hand over with a lead of over 1sec, then this places major pressure on the fly leg of major competitors to at minimum not allow this to blow out further. The US anchor leg is not stellar but a lead of over 1.25sec should be defensible.

kevin roose

You certainly dont rate Bohl do you and either Mckeon in the relay, well you are in for a shock ….. 1.25 sec gap going into freestyle you are dreaming ??????

John Lohn

CW, I agree that if there is a leg that might be “locked in,” it would be breaststroke. King has that kind of potential. At the same time, there isn’t the same certainty as four years ago.

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