To Rio 2016: 15 WRs; Phelps Keeps ‘Fly Marks, Loses 400IM

Michael Phelps [Photo: USA Swimming]

The Swimnex™ table 2012 has been updated to draw a picture of the Rio 2016 Olympic podium across all Olympic events: the Games in Brazil or moments between then and now will witness 7 men’s world records and 8 women’s world records; 14 shiny suit times will not be surpassed, the count suggests

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The Swimnex™ table 2012 has been updated to draw a picture of the Rio 2016 Olympic podium across all Olympic events: the Games in Brazil or moments between then and now will witness 7 men’s world records and 8 women’s world records; 14 shiny suit times will not be surpassed, the count suggests

Comments

Naya Missy

I believe both 400m free world records will go down in 2015, but great predictions !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Linny

I agree with Naya Missy about the 400s (assuming Sun Yang stays on the rails) but that is because of outstanding individuals rather than trends. For that reason I also struggle to see the men’s 200IM record go down any time soon.

As for Swimnex, I admire people who are prepared to put their ideas and maths on the line by publishing their numbers in this way but I have seen people do similar before and the predictions were never that good this far out. Whilst this purports to be more advanced than those which have gone before, I remain unconvinced that future performances, especially the gold medal winning ones, can be anticipated by looking at history. Good fun though!

Also Swimnex need to be aware that there is no such event as an Individual Medley Relay. I assume that it is a translation issue but makes the findings much less credible when such a simple thing is wrong.

Bart Drechsel

I think the 100m and 400m freestyle for women will be a bit quicker than the predictions. Then again I think the 400m Im will be a bit slower. The Phelps 400m Im world record has never really been properly challenged. The backstroke disctances for men will probably be quicker and I’m sure the breatsroke distances for ladies will be alot faster. Further, I think both 4x200m freestyle relays will be a bit slower.

Rafael

Some marks are pretty too bold

1500 free 14:35 To Medal? Ok.. Only Hackett and Sun EVER went that fast.. And can´t see anyone on the field (Maybe Horton) who can catch up to Sun Yang. Probably this is the one they will miss..

Same for 1:43:81 to medal on 200 free.. achievable, but hard..

4:06 to medal on 400IM seems hard too, the freestyle relay medal time is very fast too..

DDias

Some times are crazy fast(like 1500), others pretty slow.
21.19 to win 50 free?Either Cielo or Manaudou will beat(or be pretty close) next year of that mark.With a lot of youngsters around 22low now, i will not be surprised with sub-21 to win.
Same with girls 100free:I believe AT LEAST 4 girls under 52.9(Ranomi,Campbell,Sarah and Missy).Dont forget some chinese wonder right now is only 15, but will be at her prime in Rio.
I found girls 200free a bit weak too.And till there, 1.05 will be a time Ruta will do eating chilli beans with fart propulsion without leg kick.

Craig Lord

Linny, I think it was more a case of copy and paste from one field to another rather than translation (people working in the project are native English speakers). They provided an updated chart with the word ‘individual’ removed.

aswimfan

I’m sure the people at swimnex used statistics, math, projections etc., but I FEEL some will miss the mark, as others have also mentioned above:

– The winning time and medaling times for women 100 free are a bit slow. Campbell have taken the event to a new level and other will surely try to close the gap, so winning time will probably a WR 9or very close to it) and medaling times will be around 52.6
– women 400 and 800 free are a tad slow, considering that ledecky are already swimming those times or faster.
– men’s 200 and 400 IM WRs will not be broken, unless kalisz’ improvement rate beat those of Phelps, Hagino or Cseh.
– Men’s 100 and 200 backstroke will be won in a LOT faster times than the 52.16 and 1:53.33, while the women’s back is right on the money I think.
– 4:27.38 is quite optimistic time for w400 IM, although it is still reasonable.
– Yang will have already swum 3:39 at either next year’s Asian Games or 2015 worlds
– 1:05.02 for w100 breast is laughably sloowww… Jones already swam around that mark seven years ago.

Jim C

How fast will the pool in Rio be? Will it be as fast or faster than the London pool?

Craig Lord

🙂 pools are not fast (though that is often said…) I think swimmers are 🙂

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