Mack Horton Leads Aussie Charge In Adelaide, Act 1; Japan Heats Rattle Ranks

Mack Horton by Patrick B. Kraemer
Mack Horton by Patrick B. Kraemer

A solid start Down Under with four men into the world top 8 in the 400m freestyle in heats, a mixed picture and little sign of rush in prelims at China trials – and then there was Japan this morning: nothing like heats of nationals in the Land of the Rising Sun to rattle the ranks almost like no other nation ever does – 13 men in the top 30 in both 200m breaststroke and 200m butterfly the bulk from Tokyo this morning

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Comments

aswimfan

I’m intrigued to know how fast McEvoy can swim 100 fly.
51mid to 51high flat start may not be out of question.

Craig Lord

Yes, it’ll be interesting, aswimfan, assuming he does it – 50 free 100 fly heats neighbouring men’s events that day.

commonwombat

He won’t be pursuing it for selection as it clashes with the 50free. Suddenly dropping in a sub52 smack out of nowhere with no track record in the event is one helluva leap of faith !

I have been reading a number of hypotheticals postulating McEvoy swim the fly leg in the medley relay in Rio. Sorry to say but I see this as being very much a “zero sum game” at best … more likely a deficit.

Granted AUS male flyers probably aren’t safe in the kiddie’s paddling pool minus water-wings but even if McEvoy is capable of a sub52 fly split; you are sacrificing your biggest asset (McEvoy being a 46mid anchor).

Chalmers is certainly talented and capable of sub48 splits but he’s still likely to be a second slower than McEvoy. Magnussen of 4 years ago ….. viable proposition but the current model is most likely talking a better game than he can deliver.

aswimfan

CW,
I think you maybe right regarding hypothetical McEvoy swimming fly leg in 4×100 medley.
If only dorsogna or hadler can be trusted to at least swimming near their PB in Rio, then it’s no-brainer that mcEvoy should anchor.
But we all know track records of dorsogna and hadler in international competitions.
It depends on how m100 free turn out, I guess.

Robbos

ASF, this is true, I think Hadler is gone, even on last year, I think he has no chance for Olympics. If McEvoy is winning the 100fly by over a second & winning the 100free by less then a second, it makes perfect sense.

commonwombat

Rob, he’s NOT likely to be swimming the rounds of the 100fly at Trials as it runs concurrent with the 50free.

Inept as the current male flyers may be. it would be akin to Santa Claus, Tooth Fairy plus the Easter Bunny rolled into one if he was suddenly, out of nowhere, miraculously 1 second faster than them.

Wright & Morgan are possibles on the fly front. Wright’s international CV certainly doesn’t measure up to that of Da Missus and is barely an improvement of those who should remain nameless. Morgan DID swim better than Hadler in the Kazan heats but not certain he’s a solution.

Chalmers and/or Magnussen would need to be swimming 47.5-47.75 to make the freestyle side of the equation to be viable. Whilst this is distinctly more plausible; I’m not seeing either of them doing so.

RSASprinter

Anyone know where i can watch the event live ?

commonwombat

http://www.swimming.org.au/LIVE-streaming.aspx

Whilst the SAL stream (heats) does not appear to be geo-restricted; I fear that the 7 stream is. Good luck

Ger

RSA, this is the live link: https://au.tv.yahoo.com/plus7/live/#
It is geoblocked though, to Aus.

Craig Lord

Good – but not live CW… will be put out at 10.15… only live for watchers of 7 as I see it…

commonwombat

That’s how I saw it. They ask for a postcode. Try putting in mine (2077) if you like.

aswimfan

RSAsprinter,
http://www.swimming.org.au/LIVE-streaming.aspx

It’s free for prelims via youtube, but for evening/finals it’s via channel 7 streaming which means you or your browser has to be located in Australia.

RSASprinter

Thanks Everyone. I had already tried them. Such a pity, was really looking forward to it.

ThereaLuigi

These are my predictions for Commonwombat’s reactions to McEvoy’s 100 free at the Trials:

A) Sub 48 swim: Yeah, it’s good, but he wont be able to repeat it at the Olympics, and again he played his cards too early

B) 48 and over swim: What did I tell you? He couldn’t swim a 47 when it was needed!

😀 😀 😀

Robbos

I think Commonwombat’s big ??? on the 1500, became a big Horton!!!! But then nothing is certain.

aswimfan

TL,

That’s funny. CW is always on the very cautious side when it comes to Australia’s medal predictions.

I am more optimistic and feel that could be three sub 48 this week in Adelaide.

aswimfan

Horton negative split the race:
1:50.87-1:50.78
And he is now fourth on textile all time list, behind Thorpe, Yang and just behind Park (3:41.53)

The problem with Horton is that he doesn’t seem to be able to close fast. Here, his last split is 27.36
To beat someone like Yang, he needs to get it down to sub 27.

aswimfan

oopss wrong tread for above comment.. please delete.

ITR

is there a link to live timing? I’d like to see the splits and all that 🙂 thanks!

commonwombat

TL, when I see what they actually produce then I’ll post my impression.

I’d be distinctly surprised if he DIDN’T break 48 !! He has to be seen as a very real medal contender for this event; his performance in Kazan & his form so far this year back that up. I’ve never said anything to the contrary !

My point re “early cards on the table” refer to similar case a few years back with Magnussen when he was swimming barnstorming times early in the season ….. but not bettering them later in the year.

ASF; I’m cautious because my terms of reference go back further than yours and I remember Olympic campaigns where AUS expectations were built up high and they walked away with next to nothing.

I think too many still have their mindsets still attuned to the years of plenty (Sydney through Beijing) but those days are gone and normal service has been resumed. Medal tallies will be more along London lines and far fewer gold.

Craig Lord

At the foot of the article, ITR.

ITR

Craig, I don’t see anything at the bottom. After the last paragraph I only see the social media and email buttons and then the related articles.

thanks, aswimfan!

Craig Lord

Results in full link and results at glance, all podiums appears at the foot of the article ITR, within the article field, not sure why you can’t see it…as in:

After shaking off the first-day cobwebs with a swift 23.57 test of speed in the 50 ‘fly heats, Cameron McEvoy left it there, leaving the helm of pace to Ryan Pini, of Papua New Guinea, a 23.67 victory matching his time from heats. Daniel Lester and David Morgan followed, on 23.72 and 23.76.

Results in full
Day 1 results at a glance:

aswimfan

Craig,

That link is in the other article;
http://www.swimvortex.com/mack-the-knife-is-back-horton-books-rio-olympics-400-battle-in-cracking-341-65/

I’m guessing ITR was looking for the link in this article.

Craig Lord

Ah, that would explain it – he needs to read more 🙂
Thanks for providing him the link in comment, aswimfan (which sometimes send the comment to spam automatically, or leave them in holding status waiting to be approved and why I avoid doing it if it’s something already in the article).

Craig Lord

ITR: I see you were on a different article, as aswimfan points out: link here on live finals piece:

http://www.swimvortex.com/mack-the-knife-is-back-horton-books-rio-olympics-400-battle-in-cracking-341-65/

ThereaLuigi

CW is not cautious, Aswimfan. He is just impossible to please.
I hope he understands this is in good spirit 🙂

Robbos

CW, let’s look at London, expectations were high based on the men’s 100 free times from the trials, based on this they were favourites for the 100 & 4X100. Maggie lost the 100 by 1 hundredth of a second & the 4X100 were poor. However, the women’s surprise in the 4×100 free compensated for that. outside of this, where was the high expectations? They were favourites for 2 golds only.

Now this time, the Aussies have gold medal potential;
Men 100 free McEvoy
400 free Horton, based on last night’s swim
100 back Larkin
200 back Larkin, big gap to no 2 in the world.
4×200 relay, we will see more today & tomorrow.
women 50 Free C1 & C2
100 free C1 & C2
100 back Seebohm & next best is another Aussie
200 back
4×100 free relay.

Now there is no certainty here, we could walk away with no golds & I’m sure you could write a post on why any of these will not win, but they are all potential gold medalist, so I understand why expectations are high.

i would confidently say the Australian swimming team will surpass the 1 gold they won in London.

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