M200br: Ross Murdoch, European Champ Who Cannot Be In Rio Racing Marco Koch

Ross Murdoch of Great Britain - take that - by Patrick B. Kraemer
Ross Murdoch of Great Britain - take that - by Patrick B. Kraemer

Marco Koch, of Germany, heads to Rio 2016 for an assault on the Olympic title as the World champion and European champion at home – but not abroad. The honour was Ross Murdoch’s today, the Commonwealth champion pipped by Koch in Berlin two years ago, returning the favour with his own home win at the London Aquatics Centre 2:08.33 to 2:08.40.

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Comments

aswimfan

I just love seeing Murdoch’s facial expression after each good swim. This is one of the enjoyment watching swimming races where he swimmers genuinely express their happiness after seeing the board.

kevin roose

Understand swimmers are in heavy workload but apart from mens breastroke the British have struggled in there home pool at these championships …….dont see many gold medals in Rio ……looks like being USA ….THEN AUSTRALIA …….distance to third

aswimfan

Kevin roose,

You obviously have followed swimming only recently if you base Olympics results on these euro Champs. In Rio, I think the Brits will have a somewhat similar if less one gold to their Kazan’s results in olympics events.
Remember that GBR Kazan’s results looked very good due to non-olympics events golds (50 breast, mixed Medley relay). The Brits are still on the trajectory to win golds in m100 breast and m200 free and strong medal chance for m4x200, w200 IM and may also medal in w200 breast, m200 breast, w50 free, m100 free, m4x100 medley.
Also, you should watch London Olympics to see how it worked out for Australia when they only won 1 gold.

One thing is for sure: the parity in swimming keeps increasing, see Kazan results for confirmation.

Craig Lord

Kevin, they have won half their Berlin 2014 winning tally so far when racing unrested and, for several of them covering 7 to 12 k a day in training – what unfolds in Rio we shall all wait to see but I wouldn’t base any determined forecasts on this week…

Mark Haythornthwaite

Murdoch’s victory illustrates the folly of the British selectors in not exercising some discretion by picking him over Benson for Rio, despite being very narrowly beaten by Benson at trials. A possible gold medal thrown away.

Martin McEvoy

Mark H

Given that Benson was well off pace in the 200m, but actually rather closer to the top on 100m, I suspect minds must be at least considering a switcheroo – let Benson do both 100m and the heat swim in the medley relay (a genuine medal chance), while letting murdoch concentrate on what could be a duel for the gold in 200.

Both chaps are guaranteed ‘a swim’, but there is still some room for mix and match. I suspect a few people may have booked, or lost, swims based on this week – Tutton may well now get a race in the 100 individual, for example, as well as the 200, wheras Scott and Walker Hebborn may now be kept back for relay duties…

Felix Sanchez

It would be some stitch up for GB to have everyone train through euros, then start fiddling with Olympic event entries base on the results.

Discretion (of which GB’s selectors gave themselves quite a lot) gives the illusion of micro benefits; objective criteria is a macro benefit.

kevin roose

Yes Australia did only win one gold in London that was 4 years ago alot has changed since then new coaches , philiosphy ,new CEO with dramatic new thinking from the top down and most importanly a new culture within the team ….forget about London now you will see a new formidible Australian team in London

commonwombat

Kevin, the team culture has changed due both to the new head coach plus the “passing” from the team of certain less positive influences.

Most certainly, a number from the London team HAVE made major steps forward both in personal maturity AND performances and some new talent has come through.

However, the men’s team remains very shallow with regards to quality and spread of competitive events. They were reliant on only a couple of individuals (Sprenger & Magnussen) for individual medals in London and has that changed ?

My contention is …….. not particularly. There are still areas where they remain highly uncompetitive. McEvoy (100free) is a direct replacement for Magnussen and Larkin in backstroke covers off Sprenger’s breaststroke medal.

What may be the difference is that either/both could walk away with golds rather than silver but whilst they may be favourites, neither are they sure fire certainties to do so. Others COULD medal but the operative word is could rather than likely.

Only one male relay (4xmed) medalled in London; will that be any different in Rio ? This can only be answered with the word “possibly” rather than likely.

The women remain very strong but will this mean more gold. There’s certainly good reason to think so but really, they’re only “prohibitive” favourites in the same event they won gold in London, the W4X100.

Certainly Seebohm (100back), C1 (50/100free) deserve to seen as favourites but that’s very different to being sure fire certs. All three female relays medalled in London but will they in Rio ? The W4X200 is much weaker.

There’s certainly sound reason for confidence at this point in time but thinking they’re somehow going to walk away with 9-10 gold medals or 20 medals total is real “best case scenario come true” material. The odds on that playing out in reality are astronomical.

Hopefully the likes of McEvoy, Seebohm, Larkin, C1 and/or C2 will come out on top in at least one of their main events and another relay (beyond the W4X100) can get up. There’s good reason to hope some others might pick up some minor coin.

What IS a hard cold fact is the reality that ANY medal will be hard earned.

kevin roose

The American trials will give Australians a better picture of our gold medal chances …

Seebohm 100/200 back
Hocking 200 back
Groves 200 fly
Larkin100/200 back
Mcevoy 100 free
Horton 400 free
Dont worry about the womens 50/100 free cant see the Americans having a sprinter to match C1 , C2 …
Mens 4 x100 free : Chalmers, Roberts, Magnussen , Mcevoy will be in the mix .
Womens 4 x 100 free us to loose
WOMENS 4 X100 Medley ; Seebohm , Mckeon, Bohl, Campbell……. in the mix
My point is London is long gone evidance of that in Kazan ……
For me the mens 400 free final first night is huge if Horton can win that and it s a big if it should mean 2 gold medals first night womens 4 x100 free being the other one …would give the team great confidence for the rest of the meet ……

aswimfan

Kevin roose,
Hocking is not going to win gold. Even at her best on 2011 and 2013 she was waaayyy behind Franklin. And Seebohm is not going to win 100/200 back double in Rio. She doesn’t handle pressure very well and her 200 PB is still almost 2 seconds slower than Franklin’s. It all depends on Franklin in the 200 back. If she gets anywhere near her best, everyone else is chasing for silver.

Groves will not win gold. You can mark my words. Her PB is still significantly slower than the major contenders: Belmonte and Hoshi. If you were an Australian (which I don’t think you are) you would have also known that she also is a poor performer in international meets, she is almost this close to making the “tourist” grade.

Horton’s 400 PB is slower than Sun Yang’s and he still has to prove if he has the mentality for swimming fastest in a major competition.

The pressures in Kazan on the Aussie team were not great. They didn’t even swim any of the mixed relays events, making their swimmers (Seebohm, larkin) more fresh. No one expected Larkin to win gold, let alone double. Many were expecting Seebohm to win 100 but not 200. But the situation is different now. After Kazan and Aussie trials, they are now favorites in many events, the pressure is much much stronger than what they faced in Kazan.

aswimfan

It does seem to me that kevin roose just looked up at the world rankings list, checked which australians are on the list, and make outlandish predictions about australia based on it, without inputting any historical factors, or any knowledge about australian swimmers and their competitors.

commonwombat

Kevin, re your list:

Hocking: will probably need to swim a PB to medal. Whilst that is plausible, gold highly unlikely

Seebohm: the evidence of 2014 & 2015 does suggest that she’s much stronger mentally than she was in London. However, is her 2016 at her 2015 level ? A medal in the 200back if she’s at 2015 level but if Franklin is near her best in her pet event, its likely to be minor coin. Barring anything spectacular from the US, she probably deserves favouritism for the 100back but she’s not in a position of dominance. Most likely scenario is 2 medals, but can only see one gold at best.

Larkin: a more likely chance of the double than his other half but that will still be an ask. Like her, his Trials swims were good but not great and he certainly has technical room for improvement in both. He has a legit chance to win the 100 but the 200 looks the better chance. If anything, I think he’s also a stronger bet to collect a gold than Seebohm.

McEvoy: barring something astronomic from US Trials, he’s likely to be the favourite for the 100 but the same was said for Magnussen 4 years ago. A very strong gold chance but you’ve got to swim that time when it really counts.

Horton: its one thing to swim the times in domestic waters; another thing entirely to “do the business” in big time international competition. At this point, the jury is still out on that one. Here’s hoping he does but it will be a bonus rather than a medal or a gold you can “bank on”.

Groves: ASF put it bluntly but this is her third year of international competition and she has yet to show she can replicate great domestic swims in international competition. At last years Worlds, she failed to make the finals in both fly events. Again, we can hope she can turn it around but she’s not a medal chance I’d care to wager any sum on. Anything from her would be a bonus

W4X100: the nearest thing to a sure bet for AUS. However they nearly muffed it in Kazan with one exchange being very dicey. They realistically don’t need to take those chances.

M4X100: the last time AUS was on a World level podium in this event was 2011. This may change in Rio but realistically this race is likely to be faster than in Kazan and they will need to drop around 1.5sec on their Time-trial to be in that medal mix. Can they do it ? McEvoy is a massive asset and Chalmers should at least split sub48sec but the other 2 legs are dicey. Magnussen post shoulder surgery doesn’t look anywhere near his previous self. Abood is a solid 48 leg but Roberts international CV is very shaky.

W4XMED: like the men, they may possess the best “bookends” but unless the middle legs perform competently, they aren’t going to win. That’s what Kazan spelt out. Bohl’s progress is certainly a positive as is McKeon’s but they need to do it when it counts. They could most certainly win gold but its a long way from a certainty

W100free: The Americans don’t look to have anyone likely to crash the medal party so, barring illness & injury (and they are both fragile on these counts), C1 & C2 should be on the podium. However Sjostrom remains a very real threat. She will most certainly need to be at her very best to beat them but they will need to be at their best to win.

W50free: C1 probably a clearer favourite in this one but this is a race where you cannot afford any mistake. There are potentially more players here than in the 100 and its likely to be faster than Kazan. Sub24 will most likely be needed to medal; C2 has never been there however Sjostrom & Halsall have. Probably one one of them will medal in this race and C1 looks to be it

kevin roose

My predictions are not out landish and it was with the proviso of lets see how the American Trials pan out . To not say Horton is not in with a chance in the 400 for gold is sheer folly, particulary with the grey clouds hanging over Sun .
Of course i am up beat about the Australian chances they only have to win 2 events in Rio to double London gold medal haul.
When Jacco Verhaeren came on board October 2013 as head coach he made a clear statement that Rio was his number one objective of success , this has also been echoed by then new CEO John Bertrand .
Important coaching positions have changed within the team as has the culture which was toxic in London .
Time will tell but understand The Hockings and the Groves are training under completley new environments than in past years ….

Robbos

Please Commonwombat, yes Australian is shallow & now while you don’t rate McEvoy in the 50 & 200 & TFH in 200, Horton, No 1 in the world at 400, & no 2 in 1500, all the relays they are very competitive, which you don’t rate neither, but all have the potential to win a medal if not gold, not saying they all will, but, as someone keeps saying nothing is written yet & based on rankings in the past couple of years all those above are medal chances.
Once you are a medal chance you have the chance for ultimate glory as there really is no-one like Ledecky, Sjostram (butterfly) or W4X100 in the men’s.

Robbos

Don’t worry Kevin, I got your back, people are not rating Horton for his performances in Kazan but still rate Franklin, who has done nothing since 2013.
It was well documented about Horton’s illness in Kazan.
Nothing is written, there is as much chance of Sjostrom upsetting the Campbell sisters in the 100 as Mckeon upsetting Ledecky & Sjostrom in the 200.
However i believe C1or C2 to swim near her best to win 100 & Ledecky to do likewise in the 200.
I can imagine Craig not getting amongst the predictions, he is a journalist, the rest of us are mere punters having an opinion.

Robbos

I state & will reiterate, Australia went to London with only 2 gold medal favourites Maggie & the M4X100 & came away with gold in the W4X100.

Going in today, prior to US trials, they are favourites for W50, W100 Free. W100, W200 Back, W4X100, M100free, M100, M200 Back. That is 8 favourites & I would rate all 3 men’s relay & w4x100med a chance & add Horton in 400 & 1500, with all strong medal chances with gold medal not way out of sight.
Then you have McKeon, McEvoy, TFH as strong potential.
Now I’m not saying This Australian will win all, but this team is far stronger then London.
Just remember Franklin!!!!

Robbos

I am shock by you ASF, you want Paltrinieri to beat Sun because, ummm, well, well documented, maybe same as when he swam his PB in 400.

aswimfan

Robbos,
I really don’t know what you are talking about. You are talking in cryptic.

aswimfan

Robbos,
If you are looking at the percentages of their PBs, the gap between McEvoy and the rest of his competitors in 100 free is as big as the gap between Sjostrom and the rest of her competitors in 100 fly.

commonwombat

Rob, as usual you resort to hyperbole. I didn’t say that I don’t rate Horton or that he is not a legitimate chance (which he is) but the question mark ASF raised is a legitimate one.

Kevin’s list concerned Gold chances, NOT medal chances. DO at least pay the courtesy of actually reading the damned thread before firing potshots

No, I don’t think either TFH or McEvoy are likely to win the 200free. Medal … maybe but they’ll need to faster than they’ve been. McEvoy’s real gold shot is the 100free; a chance of a medal in the 50free but that;s likely to be very competitive. The men’s relays COULD medal but are they realistic gold chances …. I think that’s debatable

Kevin, DO please get your facts straight ! Sailor Boy is the Chairman of Swimming Australia not the CEO. Hocking has changed location but her time out was necessitated by injury not personal matters.

There is nothing wrong with being upbeat but you’ve been posting over the past few days as if your pronouncements are some kind of rolled gold certainties (case in point w100free thread) and in too many cases, you haven’t got your facts right.

Yes, I and probably everyone else on this forum would agree the AUS team culture is 1000% times better than London. Verhaeran certainly has made some major changes for the better across the board.

AUS certainly has a number of very legitimate gold medal contenders. Most that you listed I can agree with; the ones that I do take issue with are Hocking, Groves and the M4X100 where I think the question marks are greater than the case you can make for them winning gold.

I certainly think they WILL win more gold than in London but I think things will really need to be going well for them to end up with more than 5, maybe 6 rather than double figures. As London, and other Olympics have taught us, its very easy for those gold medal prospects to end up as silvers.

Robbos

ASF, in the Paltrinieri thread, you were happy that he got close to Sun’s time & hope that he beats him in the 1500.
Well Horton’s time is very close to Sun’s PB in the 400, so the same reason he swam so well in the 1500, is the same reason he swam the 400, why not the same love for Horton to beat Sun in the 400.

Robbos

Again CW, you resort to calling out my opinions because they differ to yours. I said in most men’s events, those medal chances are potential gold.

McEvoy & TFH would need to go faster then they have ever done to win 200, of course, so does Sjostrom to beat the Campbell sisters & you give her a chance.
Give me a break.
The relays are a big chance too, not saying they win win, but 4X100 med went very close to beating the Americans, of course, we needed a super human effort from McEvoy, but based on his trial time he will even spilt faster & we have a huge improvement Morgan from Hadler in the butterfly, of course the Americans will improve, but we are in with a chance.
Franklin has not swam her magical times since 2012 but you have more faith in her then others who have swam great times in recent times.

aswimfan

Robbos,

Of course I *hope* Horton to beat, destroy, Sun Yang in 400 free. I also *hope* Horton to win gold in 400 free.
But am I super confident Horton will beat Yang in 400? Am I positive that Horton will win 400 free gold?
not really.
Am I writing off Horton’s chances for 400 gold?
Not at all.

There are also some differences why I rate Paltirnieri’s chances for 1500 gold greater than Horton’s in 400:
1. Paltrinieri has proven in Kazan that he can deliver at the big kahuna. Horton will have his chances to prove in Rio.
2. Yang has never been under 14:40 since London, but he’s been 3:41-3:42 since London.

aswimfan

Basically, I doubt Yang will ever go back to swim under 14:35, but I still expect him to swim 3:41s.

aswimfan

There are already signs of danger for Australia’s men 4x100medley chances:
Today, Jake Packard finished 15th in 1:02.01 at Japan Open. 1:02.01

If Packard has off day in Rio (and I don’t believe the 24 yo Joshua Palmer will improve much), Asutralia can say goodbye to the medal. The Aussie selectors will have themselves to blame by not taking along the fast improving 17 yo Wilson.

kevin roose

What you dont think the Australian Womens 4 x 100 free are NOT a gold certainty ?????

We have 3 swimmers who have gone under 53 seconds and the 4th mid 53 this year …..this relay team consists of the gold and silver medalist last world championships…..
Whats wrong with making predictions thats have the fun ..it is a sport remember…..

Robbos

ASF, yes as mentioned before we are mere punters having a wild guess, but I reckon Horton will go under 3.41 in Rio, nothing in his makeup shows that he would crack under pressure.

kevin roose

i will repeat myself again wombat …my predictions are SUBJECT TO CHANGE based on results from the U.S.A TRIALS ……for example if your precious Franklin bombs out you dont think Hocking will come into contention….

kevin roose

apologies …meant to say Australian womens 4 x 100 free have the gold and bronze medalists Kazan ….

aswimfan

kevin roose,

I don’t who you are talking to about w4x100 free. But neither CW nor I never dispute Aussie w4x100 free as strong gold medal favorites.
But one thing is certain: except for death, nothing in this world is certain.

beachmouse

Remember that the Aussie men were supposed to be a lock for the 4×100 FR and then remember how that didn’t go to script.

Kim Simonsen

Missed Gyurta – hopefully he will defend his title in Rio and emulate Kitamija in the 200!

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