Jazz Carlin Cracks Out Her Third 4:04 Of The Year In 400 Rematch With Katinka Hosszu

Jazmin Carlin - delighted by her double double in Netanya, December 2015 - with Katinka Hosszu after the 400m battle - by Patrick B. Kraemer
Jazmin Carlin - delighted by her double double in Netanya, December 2015 - with Katinka Hosszu after the 400m battle - by Patrick B. Kraemer

Britain’s Jazz Carlin cracked out her third unrested 4:04 of the year for victory in the 400m freestyle in a time a touch ahead of her pace on the way to silver at the European Championships in London last month. A 4:04.33 in the bag at Olympic trials in April, Carlin overhauled Katinka Hosszu (HUN) for a 4:04.67 to 4:05.40 win this evening, the winning time ahead of her London podium-pace 4:04.85. Solid wins for Hosszu on medley, Chad Le Clos in the 200 ‘fly and Kosuke Hagino in the 200m medley, while Anton Chupkov pips Marco Koch in the 200m breaststroke

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Comments

Barnabas Mandi

Craig,

Yes, it’s a real sports dynasty, thanks for mentioned it.
Eszter Terezia Gyarmati formerly gymnast and swimmer is her mother and Zoltan Szilagyi European Junior Champion in 1500free back to 1982 and multi-medalist in 200-400 free 1982-83, two times Olympic athlete swimmer is her father.
Dezso Gyarmai died in 2013 when Liliana won two silvers at JWRs in Dubai and a year after it she won two golds at JOGs in Nanjing.

Craig Lord

Thanks Barnabas, what an aquatic inheritance … thanks for reminding us of the two WJ medals

Barnabas Mandi

Not at all, she was born in watersports

Balazs Jekkel

Although they are not “blood relatives” for Liliána, but still part of her family:
Dezső Gyarmati’s first wife is Éva Székely (Olympic Champion 200m Breast Helsinki) and their daughter is Andrea Gyarmati who is European Champion, silver- and bronzemedalist in München (100m backstroke, 100m butterfly). Andrea’s first husband is Mihály Hesz olympic gold- and silvermedalist in kayakcanoe (K1-1000m, 1968, 1964).

Craig Lord

🙂 – among the starkest examples of aquatic connections running so deep and wide

Barnabas Mandi

and Mate Hesz, son of Andrea and Mihaly was member of the Hungarian national team in water polo. Circle is obviously round.

aswimfan

The depth of women’s 400 free behind Ledecky is incredible. All 7 would be Olympics finalists have swum sub 4:04 recently (kapas, Ashwood, rouwendhaal, Boyle, Carlin, Maclean, Smith). The fight for silver and bronze will be fierce.

Barnabas Mandi

aswinfan,
As I know this year only 5, KL, Smith, Kapas, Ashwood and MacLean swam sub 4:04. Otherwise the fight will be terrific, that’s for sure. I think around 4:01 will be needed for silver.

Yozhik

Besides Katie Ledecky only three swimmers swam 4:01 – Muffat, Schmitt and Pellegrini. I don’t see anybody of such magnitude this season.
What a race!
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2lnvid

Craig Lord

Perhaps faster, Barnabas… but the clock will depend on the environment and the pool and the clock; so it could all be slower than we think, just as much as faster than we think 🙂

Yozhik

The reference to the Olympic race in London was made to visualise the difference between 4:01 and 4:03. Sure, there are plenty of examples when unbelievable things happen, but the probability for Smith, Kapas, Ashwood and McLean to swim 4:01is about the same as for Cate Campbell to break world record of Britta Steffen by swimming under 52 and for Katie Ledecky to beat Pellegrini’s record at 200. It looks deceptively within the reach, but is actually far away. On the other hand the most exciting thing in the sport is when low probability events get materialised. So let’s cross our fingers in the expectation of unthinkable.

commonwombat

Yozhik, I frequently disagree with you but I am in full agreement with what you have just said. We, as with any other fans or pundits, will generally base any reasoned judgements on what we will see as being the more likely outcomes.

Just as basketball has it’s “hail mary’s” from half court which may go down a couple of times per season; the more “probable” scenarios will play out the overwhelming majority of the time but there are always going to be those unpredictable events/those “one brief shining moments” when the unpredictable occurs … often to someone largely unheralded.

Predicting them is another matter entirely.

aswimfan

By recent I meant within one year. Carlin, Rouwendhaal and Boyle swam 4:03 last year.

aswimfan

Yozhik, I agree with you (I hope you remember this when you feel I have never agreed with you 🙂
The difference between 4:01 and 4:03 is still very big.
We have expected for how many years that Sun Yang would break 400 WR and he never did. So close and yet so far away.

Although to dismiss altogether that no one aside from KL will go under 4:02 is also kinda folly. Both Moffat and Schmitt had never been anywhere near 4:01 just 6 months before the London.

There’s one aspect of 400-800-1500 that has markedly changed since the arrival of Ledecky: no more nervy race. Everyone is going for it from the get go. No more wait and see and reserving energy for final lap assault. No more nervy race like 2008 Olympics 400 free final which ended up in slow times. And I like this, it makes distance race exciting to watch.

Yozhik

I wish you, gentlemen to be as much pleasantly surprised with your favorite swimmers as I was surprised with your kind words 🙂

Barnabas Mandi

OK guys,
I know a girl who will swim for example the next. 29.15, 30.75, 30.70, 30.40, 30,40, 30,40, 30,40, 30,00. If 4:02.20 is enough for silver I will be happy also with that I was wrong and you were right.

Craig Lord

I ‘d say there are at least 4 swimmers capable of that this season – doing it on one particular day is another matter, of course, Barnabas.

Barnabas Mandi

That’s true. But you can imagine I won’t be sad when Kapas win the silver with this. (I know a girl…) 🙂

Craig Lord

I can imagine 🙂

Barnabas Mandi

So If somebody can swim .04 faster between 50 and 350 the time will begin with 4:01

Yozhik

Have I understood correctly that Kapas hasn’t yet swum 4:02.20 but she WILL? By far her personal best that is also the Hungarian National record is 4:03.47. Her previous three years old personal best was 4:05.61. Sure, following this logic we can easily extrapolate this time series with another 2sec jump into 4:01 territory and after that one more right next to the Ledecky’s record. Where has this modest 4:02.20 come from?

aswimfan

Barnabas,
Thanks for the insight on this “I know a girl…”, it certainly would not make a lot of people’s predictions for 400 free silver/bronze any easier 🙂

Kapas is hitting her peak at the right time. Right now, I’ll make Kapas, Ashwood and Carlin as the front-runners.

aswimfan

And I think Kapas’ 800 should come down a lot more. She has 4:03 in the bag, and she swam 15:47 last year. If her 400 and 1,500 recent PBs are of any indication, her 800 should get to around 8:17 ballpark, which may be enough for bronze.

Barnabas Mandi

Yozhik,
from my mind. Please speak about it after Rio.
aswinfam, yes you are right. But, 4:14 will be good for silver. Bogi will swim it.

Yozhik

@Barnabas Mandi. What Buglarka Kapas is showing this season deserves real attention. In my opinion this world class races are much more respectful than kilos of Hosszu’s medals and I wish her many more fantastic results that will please sport lovers. But the prediction of the progress curve is a very tricky thing. Who would know that 2012 will be the end end point for the rising progress for those two girls who swam 4:01 at 400 and 1:53.6 and 1:54.6 at 200. Who could predict that Ian Thorpe will never improve his 3:40.08. etc, etc, etc. It seems so natural to take off just one tenth of the second from splits of long distance swimmer to expect 1 second (at 400) or 2 seconds (at 800) improvement. But for some reason very often this just a little extra effort never happens.
I won’t bet on Baglarka’s prospects and respect your desire to see 4:01 from this swimmer. Because it makes two of us when I wish Ledecky to hold unreachable to others world records at 200-400-800-1500.

aswimfan

Barnabas,
So you think Kapas could swim 4:02.2 and 8.14 in Rio?
Fantastic. That would make the fight behind KL even more exciting!

By the way, Kapas in Indonesian means “cotton”. Very easy name to memorize for me 🙂

Barnabas Mandi

Yozhik, as I wrote, speak about it after Rio. She will swim these times.
aswinfam, yes, 800 will be easier. Less competitotor for medals. In Hungarian Kapás means e.g. bite the bait. On the other hand elKapas means catch. Catch me if you can,.

Yozhik

@Barnabas Mandi: After Rio there will be nothing to talk about – what will be done will be done. If you may notice the majority of commentators at this site are in prediction businesses. My interest in all such stuff is not the outcomes but the logic that people follow when making some assumption about future results. If they have some extra information that is not widely accessible or they are good with analyzing and extrapolating the historical data or they just simply possess the ability to foresee the future.
P.S. I compared her 4:03.47 splits with what you suggested for 4:02.20. What can I say, Kapas may very well drop some time from her personal best but in no case it will be the way you proposed. The 400 is a confusing distance where swimmer just don’t have time to get into rhythm. Kapas’ recent progress at 200 suggests to me that if it would be an improvement at her 400 then it happens sooner by swimming faster first half of the distance than making a negative splits swimming from 150 like a robot under 30.5

Barnabas Mandi

Cruising to 150 after it swimming constantly fast till the end. This will be the case in 400.
Crusing to 250 and….. This is 800.

Yozhik

I have no doubts that you know more about Kapas than I do and have better understanding of what she is capable of. I have one last note however that you may consider making prediction. Kapas’ 200 personal best is 1:58.47. You are expecting her to split 400 by 2:00.0 – 2:02.20. It is very tough.
All swimmers who made under 4:03 were/are excellent 200 racers. Ledecky(1:54.4), Muffat(1:54.6), Schmitt(1:53.6), Pellegrini(1:55.0), Manaudou(1:55.5) and Costa Shmid(1:56.1). Kapas 4:03.47 is consistent with what she showed at 200 in April.
So let’s wait for Rio. Maybe Kapas will improve not only 800 and 400 but 200 as well.

aswimfan

Yozhik,
if Kapas is more 800/1500 swimmer (I believe she is, as she has 15:47 in 1,500), then a 200 PB of 1:58 should be sufficient to negative split 400 in 4:02
Janet Evans, who never swam under 2:00 in 200 free, went 4:03, and her 1,500 PB was even slower than Kapas (15:47).

Therefore, what Barnabas said (4:02.2 and 8:14) is not outrageous at all.

aswimfan

Forgot to add that Muffat, Schmitt and Pellegrini are all 200-400 swimmers and therefore you cannot compare Kapas’ 200 free speed with them, while Kapas used to be 800-1,500 with newly found speed in 200-400 this year (quite similar to Ashwood progression in the past year).

Yozhik

Asf, you missed my point. I am not questioning Kapas’ endurance as long distance swimmer. When a swimmer makes personal best I assume that her resources are completely exhausted. To swim twice back to back races that are so close to personal best (1.5 sec) is practically impossible. 2:0.0 from the blocks and 2:02.20 from the water are almost identical races. That explains why best 400 swimmers are good at 200. They swim each 200 four seconds slower than personal best.
I don’t have Janet Evans’ splits of her world record race at 400 and her personal best at 200 at that time to run comparison. If you do have it, please provide. But even if it happens that the difference will be 1.5 sec we all know that first of all Baglarka isn’t Janet and secondly she is significantly older now than Evans was at the time of her 4:03.
Also Janet Evans’ time was 4:03.85 and we are talking about those who plans to swim about two seconds faster.

aswimfan

Janet Evans’ 4:03.85 400 m splits:
2:02.14 and 2:01.7

Evans’ 200m free PB: 2:00.67

Mind you, Evans swam that 400 free in 1988 (Seoul) and swam that 200 free PB only in 1991 (Perth). Her 200 free in 1988 was even slower.

Another fact:
Evans’ 1,500 PB was 15:52, Kapas is 15:47, so Kapas has at least equal endurance as Evans.

So, if everything goes right for Kapas in Rio, she can definitely swim that 4:02.2

Barnabas Mandi

Yozhik,
At first she is not Buglarka or Baglarka but BOglarka. It’s the Hungarian word for Ranunculus. “Boglar” is a specific type of jewels, “ka” is one of the diminutives.
New team, new coach, happiness, 4 golds from London, PB in 400m (Hungarian Record), near PB and SB in 800, SB in 1500 as confirmation, so I do think she can swim it.

Yozhik

@ Barnabas Mandi: I am sorry if my misspelling of Boglarka’s name hurt your feelings. Since I wasn’t consistent with that take it as a typo 🙂
Boglarka Kapas is definitely a crown jewel of Hungarian swimming.
@asf: there is no way to argue about predictions to prove if they are stupid or ingenious. So I will leave it up to you and Barnabas with best wishes of dream comes true.
However there is a statistic that I think reflects some physiological facts. That is in order to swim under 4:02 or close to it at W400 free a swimmer must have under 1:56 personal best at 200. The statistical analysis is not a law, so the exceptions are possible, but with low probability. So, my advice will be – don’t bet on it. On the other hand when Kapas swam her personal best at 200 she may not push herself to the limits since it is not her major distance. So she could be capable for something better that 1:58.47
BTW why do you think Evans’ record stood for 18 years. It didn’t wait when someone matches Janet’s 1500 and then goes down to 400. It waited when women learned to swim 1:56 and lower at 200. And Janet Evans was exceptional swimmer that means that she is the exception to any statistics. Don’t use her performance as example.

aswimfan

Yozhik,
I agree that Janet Evans is an exception. I was just responding to your statement “To swim twice back to back races that are so close to personal best (1.5 sec) is practically impossible. ”
🙂

When swimming that 4:03.85, Janet Evans was breaking her 200 free PB twice, in one race, back to back.

I was also showing that there is no one way to swim fast 400 free (as Muffat has shown in 2012 with her ridiculous splits in several swims before London).

By the way, many swimmers have gone under Evans’ WR (4:03.85) without having 1:56 speed. (Kapas, Rouwendhaal, Ashwood, Carlin, Boyle, etc etc).

Yozhik

ask, it was said that under 1:56 at 200 is needed to go under 4:02 but not under 4:04 as it is in your examples. Read my comments more careful. Sometimes it worth it. 🙂

aswimfan

Yozhik, I got that. But at the end of your post, you wrote:
“BTW why do you think Evans’ record stood for 18 years. It didn’t wait when someone matches Janet’s 1500 and then goes down to 400. It waited when women learned to swim 1:56 and lower at 200.”

Which implicitly suggested that it requires 1:56 speed to go under Janet Evans’ 400 free WR.

Craig Lord

Yozhik, I’d say not necessarily among those who can go up to 800 at world-class. One example – Rebecca Adlington:
1:56.66 4:00.79 shiny suit
1:57.87 4:02.35 textile (faster for London 2012 bronze in textile than Beijing 2008 gold in shiny but the 200 did not move on after 2010 and her 2012 best was a 1:58.68). Not quite under 4:02 but as close as and well away from being under 1:56.

Yozhik

As I said, the statistical analysis is not a Rule but a guidance to navigate through this multi factor uncertainty that is associated with professional competitive swimming. Take it or leave it. It is up to you. And what I referred to wasn’t actually an academic statistical approach. We have number of samples that exhibit some pattern. That will be more accurate way to call it.

Barnabas Mandi

Yozhik,
you know ” I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself ” sentence derived from Sir W. Churchill 🙂

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