James Guy Flies To 51.5 Ticket To British Medley relay At World Titles & ‘Fly Double

James Guy - courtesy of British Swimming

James Guy, freestyle ace. And British 100 and 200m butterfly champion. He added the two-lap crown to his treasury with a 51.52 victory today after his 1:55.9 four-lap win earlier in the meet; victory in a career best returns him to the medley relay for world titles a year after Britain lifted silver at Rio 2016; Sheffield’s Rosie Rudin takes the 200m backstroke with maiden voyage inside 2:10

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David Brooks

With reference to what CW was saying in yesterday’s comments, with the progress Guy and Scott are making and with Peatty power on leg 2, it might not matter if CWH gives up a bunch of time on leg one of the relay.
Without Phelps, the US can’t expect to take time out of Guy on fly, and Scott might soon be a match for Adrian or Dressel. So then it becomes a question of whether Murphy can put more time into GB on back than Peatty can on breast. My money would be on the Brit.

commonwombat

David, a fair point; at this stage we really don’t have a great deal of hard evidence of just where the Americans “are at” this year and are having to go off 2016 whereas we now have hard evidence from most other nations. In all honesty, we won’t really have a real handle until the Worlds meet starts “playing out”.

As for your scenario; I will agree that it is a very real one albeit one needing “all their planets in alignment”/all four performing to their absolute max.

Without Phelps, I will agree that USA can no longer “bank” on taking significant time out of Guy but “breaking even” will probably be “break open the champers” time. Scott MAY be able to prove a match for the US anchor but as yet, he hasn’t the intl form on the board for providing that sub47 anchor split that others like Adrian have.

Having said that, I can only say that the rivalry between USA, GBR & potentially CHN in this relay promises to be enthralling over the next 3 years …… and USA potentially NOT coming out on top.

longstroke

I would put my money on Adrian/Dressel over Scott and on the best American butterflyer(whoever that may be come the time) over Guy. But even if you assume GBR and USA cancel each other out in butterfly and freestyle I think the gap between Peaty and the USA’s man in the breastroke will not be enough to overcome the gap that Murphy will open up on Walker-Hebborn. Also, if the Americans I’ve just mentioned aren’t there or aren’t in form you can be sure there’ll be other reliable candidates whereas for GBR all four have to be firing to have a decent chance. Sorry, but the American tradition in this e event will go on for me. If they are to suffer a very rare defeat it will be at the hands of China.

Craig Lord

🙂 traditions take time to establish, longstroke – and if ever there was one being established it is in the realm of Peaty, Guy, Scott and Co, on the back on many years of steady development, including the years of growing up on the Gold Coast for Chris WH and Co. I’m sure you are spot on: the USA will do whatever it can to hold on to the medley relay run and the chances of them doing that are very good indeed. I don’t agree with your assertion, though, that China has the greater chance: there is a lot of instability in that program – and a lot of pressure about to be felt by rogues still working at the heart of it all (relays, esp women’s 4×200 a part of that exercise in showing Chinese strength). Beyond that and a part of that picture, there is Ning*’s absence. Sun* just won the 100 free in 49.13 … he or someone would be considerably quicker in a heat-on relay situation, of course, but the 4×100 medley comes at the end of a big week … I see that position as weaker that CWH leading Britain and handing over to three young guns hungry to shake it up – Peaty’s 56 handing over to Scott’s potential challenge to the 47 mark … young guns keen to remind us all that all good things come to an end … and all great things have to start somewhere .. as Guy says, noting the challenge of such things, ‘why not with us’ 🙂 Certain: it’s going to be great fun to watch it and report on it …

commonwombat

Will agree that GBR DO look the obvious threat to USA in the M4XMED. As regards CHN, your points of caution are indeed valid but at least at this point, they look the only other potential players at this particular party.

AUS realistically aren’t going to be a factor as long as their middle legs are haemorraging major time and ground to the other players … breaststroke MAY find at least a partial fix but there’s no-one coming through when it comes to male fly. Their only medal hopes rely on both a stupendous anchor leg plus one of the other teams suffering from 1/2 “shocker” legs

David Brooks

I think that GB might be more of a threat come Tokyo than this year. Peatty ought to still be firing, and as Guy gets stronger, his 100 fly should improve. And of course Scott still has upside. but most importantly, by 2020 there has to hope that a replacement for CWH will emerge. Greenbank, under the guidance of Mel Marshall might be the best hope.

Craig Lord

David, I see what you mean and see the logic. I also think GBR will need (as everyone else will) to take their chances with each passing season (tradition beats expectation, which strengths tradition and so on): the idea of a replacement for CWH at some stage is reasonable – but by 2020, there might be a few folk on 58 flattish or better 100br from far and wide, USA included for all we know. Certainly, the rest of the world won’t stand still. The sums change for all nations in relays with each season and can only be regarded in that way, it seems to me. The plan has to include an expectation that the world will step up on all four strokes – and Britain will have to do that, too.

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