How Sister Act Cate & Bronte Campbell Are No Different To Rest In The Only-Child Chase

Third placed Cate (L) is being kissed by winner Bronte Campbell of Australia
Kiss me, Cate and Bronte, right, at world titles in 2015 - by Patrick B. Kramer

Sisterly love; the only-child chase when the gun goes off. “It’s all about what happens at the final, who’s the fastest on that night. Cate is swimming well. I see her training every day. I know what she’s capable of. Breaking a world record is an amazing thing. I’m really proud of her for doing it. But it doesn’t really change anything for me.” – Bronte Campbell

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commonwombat

Of the three Aussies “touted” for double individual golds, C1 would be the most likely.

In the 100, her position is bordering on that of Hosszu (200IM), Ledecky (400/800) & Sjostrom (100FLY) where injury/illness look the most prominent “if” factors. Sjostrom has a similar level of consistent excellence but as yet, has yet to explore the sub52.5 range.

50s will always have the higher risk factor and it is here where her relative disadvantage of the start handicaps her the most. Whilst still the clear favourite, she is far more vulnerable than in the 100.

The sister act ? For all the abundant (and genuine) charm; both sisters have a core of steel and are proven big meet performers. The Olympics are the one real gap in the record on their CVs

A double podium looks a fairly probable outcome in the 100 but more problematic over 50. Had C2 had a less illness/injury interrupted year; then I might be more bullish but I’m just not sure she’ll be in PB shape. She, however, probably has another Olympic cycle in her whereas I think C1 will call time either post Rio or at 2018 CG.

I’m not a particular sentimentalist but I do like to see “justice done”. C1 has proven herself to be the top of the pile in the W100fr over the past 4 years…. and the Olympic title would be the fitting crown to it all

Robbos

There are another 2 swimmers “touted” for double individual golds.

McEvoy is a very clear favourite for 100 & while the 50 is a high risk factor & anyone can win on the day, McEvoy is not far away from the best in the world.

Horton is equal favourite with Sun for 400, though i personally would lean towards Horton. He is also no 2 in the 1500 & has the bigger improvement rate that either of his rivals Sun or Paltrinieri.

They have as much chance of doing the double as likes of Murphy, Neilsen & Sjostrom of upsetting the Aussies in the other ‘touted’ individual golds.

commonwombat

Rob, whilst can agree these are “potential doubles”; I’m not expressing my own opinion but rather using the medal predictions from various media sources.

McEvoy seems to be a near unanimous favourite for the 100 but there was “no money” on him to win the 50 with his best listing being silver.

Hope this clarifies
There are some picks for Horton to win the 400 but far from a consensus. At 1500, I saw no picks for gold and the consensus was minor coin at best.

Conversely, C1 is unanimous favourite for the 100 & nearly so for the 50. Seebohm unanimous in both. Larkin a consensus pick for the 200 & split money at 100.

FYI, my reference points were the predictions from: Sports Illustrated, SwimSwam, Swimming World & Associated Press.

Robbos

CW, not doubting, outside of Murphy, I don’t see too many names toppling Campbell or Seebohm either.
That is why I said as much chance as Sjostrom & Neilsen!!!!

commonwombat

If Seebohm’s “on”, the 100’s hers. If she’s just “very good”(ie 58mid), then other players will most likely enter the equation. Not saying it WILL happen, just that its a very real scenario given Seebohm hasn’t dropped any spectacular times this year. The 200 is very open, she certainly hasnt got that one on ice.

I’m not really seeing anyone else sub 52.5 so C1 realistically only needs her Trials form in the 100. 50 is where she IS vulnerable. Its the race where she’s been “rolled” at intl meets… them’s the facts rather than an opinion. Hopefully, that will be rectified here but there’s more than a little money on RK

Robbos

You saying exactly what I’m saying but just about different swimmers.

McEvoy & Horton are ranked no 2 in the world & not far away, yes they are not favourites, but it would not be a major upset if McEvoy wins the 50 & Horton wins the 1500.
Same as RK in the 50 for women’s & the surprise packet in the 200 back.

Robbos

If Paltrinieri is slightly off, Horton with a bigger improvement rate is ready to pounce. Manadou doesn’t have the air of invincibility as in 2012/2014 & the likes of Adrian & McEvoy are just not that far away.

commonwombat

Understand the case that you are putting forward and yes, it is very plausible that they COULD double up …… but that is not really the point. We are looking through the lens of what is seen as probable or likely rather than extending it to possibles.

In the cases of C1, Seebohm & Larkin; there is clear “market sentiment” from the “pundits” & the betting markets that such a double is on given that they are favoured or are at least sharing favouritism in both their events.

With McEvoy, he has favouritism in the 100 but he’s 2nd/3rd row of betting at 50. There is a little bit of money for Horton in the 400 but he’s generally 2nd/3rd row of betting. Same in the 1500 except for the absence of money on the win

Robbos

CW, I’m agreeing with you.

I’m just saying that McEvoy 50 & Horton 1500, has as much chance as RK W50 & Neilsen or Hosszu in W100back & W200back of stopping doubles to C1 & Seebohm.

commonwombat

All matters of personal opinion, Rob, which we and others could argue forever. None of us, nor the pundits or the bookies, are going to have 100% hit rates. Most of us will have our opportunities to gloat …. as well as our quota of egg on face !

Robbos

Of course, if we are going to have 100% hit rates, I wouldn’t bother watching the races.
The excitement is that we do not know.

But what is not opinion is Horton 1500 & McEvoy 50 is 2nd line of betting & so is RK & Neilsen & Hosszu & all 5 swimmers have similar chances of causing an upset!!!!

commonwombat

Not venturing an opinion; only what the cross section of opinion & betting markets read at this point of time.

You may be interested to know that both Horton & McKeon have, again, been drawn in the same 400 heat; the last one. Thankfully Guy is in the lane between them. One desperately hopes that it has been rammed thru Horton’s skull repeatedly “Thou shalt NOT use McKeon D as a pace guide !!”

Robbos

So am I. McEvoy 50F, Horton 1500F, Neilsen 100B, Hosszu 200B & RK 50F are all on the 2nd-3rd line of betting in RIO. No opinion here.
They all have equal chances of upsetting the favourites.
Hence C1 & Seebohm has every chance of being beaten as does Paltrinieri & Manadou.

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