Daiya Seto & Masato Sakai Go 1:54 Low In ‘Fly Fight; Nakamura & Uchida Set 100 Free NRs

Daiya Seto by Patrick B. Kraemer
Daiya Seto by Patrick B. Kraemer

Stroke for stroke they raced, 0.07sec in it by the end, Daiya Seto rattling this career high with a 1:54.14 victory in the 200m butterfly, 19-year-old Masato Sakai right there with him on 1:54.21, a best by 0.03sec, on a day at Japan’s Olympic trials in Tokyo that witnessed a changing of the guard and national records in both 100m freestyle finals.

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Comments

TommyL

Kitajima does not turn 36 this year, Hackett does.

So today 3 swimmers in their 30+ failed to make it to Rio although perhaps there is still a chance for Kitajima to be on the plane based on his 100 swim.

I guess we have to wait until late June to see whether some 30+ swimmers make the US roster.

What about the Blade? He is also 36 this year. Does he already have a ticket?

aswimfan

Schoeman, who is 35, will probably make it next week in 50 free.

See the pattern:
shorter distances are more friendly to older folks.

David Brooks

The Japanese are having an impressive Championship and their men’s Medley relay is coming together nicely. The freestyle has often been their weakness, but not anymore, based on those times. I think the last event of the swimming program is the one I am looking forward to most! Sure the US will be favored as always, but I don’t think they’re a lock. China is starting to look menacing, along with Japan and Australia. We’ll see how the Brits stack up next week, but based on the trials season so far, they need some guys to step it up. Brazil might be in the medal mix too, along with France. Russia, Poland, Germany and possibly RSA to compete for a final spot.

Ger

TommyL, Kitajima has announced his retirement.

aswimfan

It mildly amused me how some people (in other swimming sites, not here) already excited with irrational exuberance when Lochte swam 4:12 in 400 IM and then claimed that the event is Lochte’s greatest chance for individual gold. 🙂

I wonder if they really thought about it:
If qualified for Rio, Lochte will have to swim faster than 4:12 to get to final and then swim a 4:06 for gold.
It’s like asking a 2012 London Lochte to teleport to the future and do it again. in 400 IM. at the age of 32.

Having said all these, I’ll say, he should swim it in the trials and go for it, Lochte! If only because you are one of my favorite swimmers!

Oliver Kramer

@aswimfan: of course the 400 IM is Ryan’s best chance to win an individual gold. Yes, his chances are low, but in all other events his chances are even lower, i guess you know why:

200 back: Larkin
200 IM: the G.O.A.T.
200 free: Hagino, Stjepanovic, Guy

stabilo

48.25 looks pretty good to back up that relay although strangely the breaststroke for Japan looks weak now (and none of them are happy about it if you believe this! – http://www.dawn.com/news/1250184).

This 1:55.98 from the 16yr old Horomura looks quite promising.

ASF – I agree with what you say, especially that he should go for it, and although it might be slower than that to make the final (4.15 in Kazan)) he might want to ask Laszlo about pacing in olympic 400IM heats! I think Hagino will gently break him into little good-looking pieces. They could have 3 good tussles in both IMs and the 200Free.

stabilo

Oliver – I would say the 200IM is a better bet (so long as he doesn’t do the 200Back beforehand, which he really shouldn’t). 200Free or 400IM as a better bet? Tough call. I will just go with the Free. (Don’t forget in Kazan he was messing around with his new turns)

aswimfan

Oliver Kramer,

Which of these following scenario do you think Lochte has more chance:
1. Swimming 4:06 in 400 IM
or
2. 1:54 in 200 IM

The answer would give indication which event he has more chance in getting gold. And I’m not even thinking about 200 free.

Oliver Kramer

aswimfan,

i think a 1:54 is more likely to achieve for Ryan than a 4:06. But a 1:54 in the 200 IM won’t be enough for gold, i see MP at 1:53 mid.

aswimfan

Oliver Kramer,

I feel that 400 IM will be won in 4:06 while 200 IM will be won in 1:54 low, and I believe that Lochte has much better chance swimming 1:54 in 200 IM than 4:06 in 400 IM.

Now I’m curious, since you think 200 IM will be won in 1:53mid, which one of these two scenario is more likely to happen:

1. Lochte swimming 200 IM in 1:53mid,
or
2. 400 IM in 4:06

As for 200 free, I don’t see him winning gold at all. The last time Lochte won major 200 free medal was in 2011 Shanghai, and Lochte has never even won an Olympics 200 free medal, so for him to win Olympics 200 free gold at the age of 32 while having previously never even won a single Olympics medal in the event is a complete leap of faith and major rewriting of swimming Olympics history and will likely raise a whole lot of questions.

aswimfan

Actually, I like Lochte’s chances in 200 back better than in 400 IM, but there’s that problem again: both 200 IM/back finals are on the same night.
If he couldn’t win both golds in London (which I had predicted before the Olympics), he’s not going to do it in Rio.

Remember, he still won 200 back gold in 2013.

So, he can be stubborn and swim both (if qualified), or he will have to choose.
Now, the question is, which one?

I believe 200 back will be won in 1:52high, so I am using the same litmus test again. Which one of these two is more likely, Lochte swimming..
1. 1:52high in 200 back
or
2. 1:54low in 200 IM

I still believe that 1:54low is more likely, and thus I arrive at my conclusion that Lochte’s biggest chances for individual gold is in 200 IM.

Felix Sanchez

I’m not convinced that Larkin or anyone else is likely to crack 1.53 in the 200back, but Lochte does seem to be moving away from the event.

It was predicted widely that Lochte wouldn’t win both 200IM & 200back in London, but how it unfolded was a surprise. In Beijing he clearly gave it his all in the 200back, then turned up to the IM with whatever energy he had left. Maybe at that time it was easier to focus energy on the 200back, as it was before his world titles or WR in IM, but come London perhaps his focus was split when he raced the 200back. Much as we all wanted to see a level playing field 200IM battle, it would be hard to justify prioritising that event. In hindsight yes, he only finished third, but he was reigning champion in the 200back and with a significantly larger time advantage on the rest of the world than he had in the IM. He was a stronger favourite there even if he got to swim both finals ‘fresh’.

Nevertheless, I think the priority has definitely switched to the 200IM, and that’s why it probably is now the best chance for gold. Also agree with aswimfan on the 200free: it would now be a bit of a surprise if he took any medal.

Oliver Kramer

aswimfan:

I think it is more likely to happen that Lochte will swim a 4:06 in the 400 IM than a 1:53 mid in the 200 IM.
The 200 back gold is very likely out of reach for Lochte, no way that he can beat Larkin i believe.

aswimfan

Felix,

When I had predicted Lochte won’t win both 200 back/IM is not because I didn’t think he didn’t have the capacity/skill. It was all about the schedule.

2011 Shanghai schedule was PERFECT for him. Like, truly perfect.
Yes, he was ahead of anybody else in 200 back leading to London, but people underestimated the psychology of swimming 2 individual finals on the same evening at the Olympics level. Even Phelps never had 2 individual finals in the Olympics.
So we don’t know what was playing in Lochte’s mind during 200 back. Was he trying to reserve some energy knowing he would have 200 IM final in an hour, and thus it was too late playing catch up?

aswimfan

Oliver Kramer,
If you believe that Lochte has more chance swimming 4:06 than 1:53, then you are consistent in your believe that Lochte has greatest chance for gold in 400 IM.

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