China Leaves Wang* & An* Off Rio 2016 Olympic Squad; & Qiu Yuhan Too …

Qiu Yuhan - ragout from cntv.cn
Qiu Yuhan - ragout from cntv.cn

China has extended its slap-on-the-wrist punishments of clenbuterol cases Wang Lizhuo*, national champion, the World junior record holder in the 100m breaststroke and China’s only man inside the minute, and medley man An Jianbao* by leaving both off the Olympic swimming team for Rio 2016. Neither is there a place on the squad for one of the country’s top and most promising women freestylers, Qiu Yuhan

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Comments

ronaham

Wang Lizhuo and Qiu Yuhan absence to let the Chinese team lost to the men’s 4×100 medley and woman 4×200 freestyle the chance of a medal

commonwombat

Maybe with the M4XMED but whilst weakening the W4X200, by no means does it rule them out of the medals; they’re still probably in the silver medal slot given AUS falls away to 1.57high/1.58 after McKeon/Barratt.

aswimfan

ronaham,

China is still pretty much in silver medal contention with 1:55/1:56/1:57.0/1:57.0
They just can’t expect to win gold now, when there was a little crack of opportunity opened by the underwhelming US trials.

I can understand the reason for leaving wang and an, but leaving Qiu Yuhan is indeed strange.

Jose Peña

Ye Shiwen is going to swim only 200 medley or 400 medley too?

Craig Lord

I would imagine just 200IM, Jose P. The top 2 finishers in the 400IM from nationals are on the team.

Iain

Leaving Qiu out is very odd. It hits all three Chinese relays, and throws away a possible 4x200m gold.

kevin roose

In the womens 4 x 200 free on current form Barrett and Mckeon are the only certainties for the final …..
then a whole host of swimmers in contention for the other 2 spots ……
They may rest Barrett and Mckeon from the heat and look at : Elmslie, Neal ,Cook and Ashwood for the other 2 finalists spots …..
Depending on Aswood form in the 400 and given then she has 2 rest days before the 4 x 200 free she could be ace in the final …..

commonwombat

Kevin, IF they did that then they’re probably skating it close for an outside lane in the final.

Elmslie at best CAN deliver a 1.56mid flying start leg; she didnt make the 200 final at Trials so whilst she may be co-opted for this relay the bulk of her preparation will be based around the much higher prioritised 4×100.

Neale’s best this year is a 1.57high, her performances in Kazan hardly inspire confidence. Groves – 1.57high. Cook – 1.58low. Ashwood – 1.58, despite her excellence at longer distances the 200 to date has seemed too short. Not seeing her as any “magic bullet” solution.

Prior to last year’s Worlds, AUS had been the clear 2nd seed in this event behind USA but the loss of Palmer & Schlanger/Wright has cut away the quality. Elmslie, at best, CAN potentially plug one hole but they’re still likely to haemorrage badly on one leg.

They’re playing for 3rd money at best and that will probably be requiring at least one 1.55low split from either McKeon or Barratt.

kevin roose

My point was not that we were going to WIN it but they are the likely candidates to make the relay…….
Mckeon will go faster than 1.55 low she did sub 1.55 at the trials ….

commonwombat

Two different preparations, Kevin. That’s the issue that Australians and all the other nations with early Trials face; having to peak twice a year as against the Americans who just have to hold their taper/double taper.

You can HOPE that McKeon can do that and her freestyle form post Trials has been quite good but that was also the case last year ….. and she DIDN’T swim her best times in Kazan.

Whilst USA weren’t perhaps as stellar at Trials as expected; they are prohibitive favourites. Even with this omission, CHN is still the next seed on the score of being more “even”.

Everyone else falls away badly. SWE top 2 (Sjostrom, Coleman) are arguably superior to AUS but fall away to those battling to break 2min. FRA/ITA not as much so but both are more a case of one stellar performer carrying the show. GBR currently lack a “gun” performer.

I stand by my call that this relay is USA (with or without the WR) comfortably from CHN ….then hold a chook raffle for bronze.

commonwombat

CHN are probably the most difficult team to predict with regards to their prospects given their propensity to deliver surprise winners on one hand and the erratic performance curves of many of their more prominent performers on the other.

My best guess is that we may see a range of 6-8 medals total. Gold – Sun Yang looks the most likely collector at 200/400. Most likely other events look to be: women’s fly events, W4X100, W4XMED & potentially M100fr.

kevin roose

Mckeon is not the same girl going into Kazan , she is and will show that she is far superiour now …..
If your saying that all she needs to do is 1.55 low for Australia to get the bronze in the relay ….well its in the bank

commonwombat

That is what you BELEIVE, Kevin but that does not necessarily make it fact !! We will not know how she or anyone else WILL perform until the meet starts.

One good or even stellar leg guarantees nothing if the rest of the relay swim poorly. This goes for ANY relay team. Its very rarely that every member of the squad “fires” on the night but often its a case of medals going to the team(s) who were the most even/had the least number of “iffy” performers. The winner is usually the one who on top of that, had someone make the decisive break with one absolutely “stormer” leg.

Anyway, this is a topic/thread relating to the Chinese rather than Australians. Rather we keep it more “on topic” ?

aswimfan

CW,
Outside lane for 4×200 is not necessarily a bad idea, and not as important as it is for 4×100.
Australia won 4×200 Beijing from lane 7.

For the prelims, I’d go with:
Neale – Cook and two from Groves/Ashwood/Wilson/Elmslie depending who’s in best form.

That may be enough to qualify at least for lane 2 or 7.

Craig Lord

‘depending who’s in best form’ – quite, asf – comes down to the day and the decision of the coach and is why relay predictions are often even more random and ultimately ruinous 🙂 than any solo crystal-balling (unless you have a 4×1 situation…)

commonwombat

ASF, the talent available this team is NOT remotely comparable in quality to the 2008 team.

Most certainly, they COULD medal but neither can they be looked upon as a “likely” medal given this is much the same personnel as the team that malfunctioned last year.

kevin roose

I would much rather talk about the Australians 99% clean than the drug infested Chinese ….
they dont deserve any thread when it comes to talking them up as medal chances
At least when the Americans beat the Australians, for example mens 100 free London both swimmers were clean ….
Unlike Kazan 100 free Mens …….

commonwombat

Kevin, this is Craig’s site and he can choose to post articles on whatever topic he sees fit. We’re merely guests, how about we NOT abuse his hospitality ?

aswimfan

CW,
I didn’t say that AUS can win 4×200 this year, I merely pointed out the fact that middle lanes are not as crucial for 4×200 as it is for sprint relay.
This corresponds with the individual 100 vs 200. When was the last time 100 was won from outside lane? Meanwhile, there have been some examples how 200 has been won from outside lanes.

kevin roose

Commonwombat i was not referring to the article it self , i was talking about you and other posts talking up some of the Chinese in terms of medals .

Robbos

Australia has the 4×200 bronze pretty comfortably covered. They have McKeon @ 1.54 or better (this is not fantasy, this is fact, she has already gone 1.54 this year), another swimmer @1.55, who will be within 1/2 second of Swedish combination of Sjostrom/Coleman, now while Sweden then goes 2.00 after that, Australia has 4-5 swimmers who are 1.57 high or 1.58 low, no other nation (apart from US & China) can matct that.

commonwombat

Just like they “had it covered” in Kazan …… where three of this very squad (including the 1.55) swam 1.58s and finished 5th. Your 1.43 COULD, most certainly, split sub 1.55 ….. or she could split 1.56 as she did in Kazan. These, too, are “on the public record”.

IF they swim competently, they are every chance of bronze however this relay contains some very inconsistent/shaky performers and is most certainly the weakest W4X200 sent to an Olympics since Athens. See them as possibles rather than probables.

Robbos

You yourself have said many times the times in Kazan were very slow. If we are going to go by what happen in Kazan why race in RIO.

McKeon swam 3 PBs in Aussie trials & had a breakout meet, this is Olympic year, why is it so difficult that most will swim better in Olympic year.
Why is it that you expect Adrian, who swam 48.31 in Kazan, but now can go to 47.3 to challenge McEvoy, but you do not expect McKeon, who like Adrian improved in their trials to swim faster in Olympic year?

commonwombat

Firstly, Adrian has a history of performing in the big meet; as yet McKeon has not.

Seondly, I have never stated that Adrian would swim 47.3 but rather something in the 47mid range. PLEASE do not put words in my mouth that I have NEVER uttered …. or wrote !

The times in Kazan actually varied from race to race as to whether they were fast or slow. The times in this relay may not be particularly relevant but the fact that the swimmers on that W4X200 failed to measure up under pressure IS, at least in my book. One of its “mainstays” has a nigh decade long history of inconsistency in international competition (both individually and relay-wise).

I just feel that there is sufficient “reasonable doubt” about the performance of this relay to make me hesitate from seeing them as “likely” medallists rather than just potential ones …… the first time in 20 years that I’ve done so.

Robbos

Expecting McKeon to have another breakout meet @ int’l level, she seems so much more comfortable, she recently swam a 2.07 200 fly to help build endurance to go with her natural speed.
My read on McKeon is possible 5 medals, 1 very likely Gold, another starting slight favourite in 4x100med, in the most interesting freestyle race 200 free, a bronze in 4X200 free & outside chance of medal in 100 fly.

kevin roose

When you swim 3 PBS at your trials sit top 5 this year fastest times 100 fly and 200 free and at the prime age of 22…….
All the signs are there of a positive breakout meet for Emma Mckeon …….
We wont have to wait long she will be on parade in the 100 fly heats first morning……
Aswimfan has stated its not experience that is the key to sucess its momentum and Emma certainly has that going into this meet ……….

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