Belinda Hocking Is Back: 200 World Champ Emily Seebohm Pipped by 0.1, Both On 2:06

Belinda Hocking [Photo: Aniko Kovacs]
Belinda Hocking [Photo: Aniko Kovacs]

Belinda Hocking is back. The 2010 Commonwealth 200m backstroke champion has a new line in her swimming diary: April 13, 2016, ‘the day I pipped the World champion by .1 to make the Rio Olympic Games’: The clock split the top 2, both well inside the qualification target, 2:06.49 to 2:06.59, the silver for Emily Seebohm.

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aswimfan

David Morgan’s progression is a very good news for Australia’s 4×100 medley. If he’s able to at least swim at his PB in Rio, Australia will be very well-placed to fight for silver behind USA and may even give USA a run for their money.

p1robi

China if allowed to swim their banned swimmers will be favourites (4×100 medley)

RSASprinter

Aswimfan, Quite so. What we need to be careful about is thinking that USA will be pick of the pile. They have had a fantastic run on the 4×100 Medley at the olympics (never been beaten if memory serves) but slowly, the rest of the world is picking it up. I would say that the US college action keeps them well versed on takeovers and such, and MP is surely still the secret weapon, but think of how its panning out so far:

GB – Walker-hebborn, Peaty, Guy/Barrett, and Proud.

Aus – Larkin, Packard, Morgan, Rocketman

China – Xu, Wang, Li, and Zetao

So far, Australia have the commanding seat, as their trials have just about done, by quite some distance as well.

Even South Africa would be fairly even by 300 with the USA.

RSASprinter

p1r0bi – Not quite, i would say AUS has taken that title with a combined time of 3:30.6

Bad Anon

Was Seebohm tapered for this meet? Her times looking “in season” based on her consistency in recent months

RSASprinter

@Craig- It may be extremely unfair to say this ,considering the times she has rolled out, but was anyone else surprised at the times Emily has produced? She has produced sub 59’s consistently, 30 second lap finished on the 200 consistently, and was without a doubt in my mind, a lock for the top of the podium in all her events.

I must say, after the 27.7 on day one, i thought to myself “i expected more”. Then i tried to reason with myself, thinking that she just did it for the fun, probably cruised it.

It seems not. Perhaps she trained through the meet?

RSASprinter

@Bad Anon, My sentiments exactly with my above comment. So glad i was not the only person who though so

aswimfan

There are some reports going on that Seebohm has trained less since last year, whatever that means.
Can someone close to Australian swimmers/coaches clarify if this is true?

aswimfan

AUS vs, CHN

back: Larkin > Xu by 0.5 seconds
breast: Packard = Wang
fly: Morgan Ning by 0.75 seconds

end: Australia wins by 0.75 seconds

Disclaimer:
Before CW come in and bust this, I’d like to say that of course this is all paper exercise, and that is what we swimming fans do, right? 🙂

aswimfan

back: Larkin > Xu by 0.5 seconds
breast: Packard = Wang
fly: Morgan Ning by 0.75 seconds

It’s so weird, I wrote all those and some parts disappeared.

Craig Lord

Not that in-season: it took a 2:05.81 to win the world title, and today she was about on her worlds semi time.. 2:06.56; pretty fast. Not sure about full taper etc but she won’t have trained through, I would imagine. 2:06 200 backstroke – very sharp regardless of expectations out there.

commonwombat

Unless someone has inside knowledge of what the Seebohm camp may be doing, we cannot know for certain what their strategy for this meet may have been.

Certainly, there is a very plausible case to be made for her, as with her other half, that their qualification was virtually assured and a full taper not warranted. She only needed to be at “usual standard” to collect her ticket and that is how it played out.

However, that scenario could be complete and utter rubbish. Unless she or her coach choose to “spill”, all we have is conjecture.

felix

China. Please. When have they ever done anything in the men’s medley relay? The defending world champions add Michael Phelps……enough said

Craig Lord

Don’t think she trained through the meet, RSAspr… but there may well be something of the Peaty model (as he described yesterday) about it… partial rest, enough to make sure in a v competitive environment.

Ger

I would be surprised if Seebohm trained through. It would be a big risk. She has no control over other swimmers. What if they swim PB’s? You have to be prepared for that.

aswimfan

Obviously Seebohm is NOT training through. Of course she is fully tapered. She

The gossip that she has been training less compared to when she was with Matt Brown worries me, though. This girl is without doubt super talented, but just like Leisel Jones, she is not as mentally strong as say Libby Trickett or Stephanie Rice. I hope the gossip is not true and she maintains at least the same training that won her double world championships.

Bad Anon

At the 2012 USA trials Missy Franklin wasn’t fully tapered going “only” 2.06.12 to win the 200back at trials… She went on to zoom a 2.04.06 in the Olympic final. I reckon top guns like Peaty, Larkin, Sjostrom etc can/could afford to do that in domestic waters. I’m inclined to believe Seebohm did something close to that

GBswim

Interesting to accumulate the individual times of each 4x100m medley leg but we all know that’s not how it goes – only a very early indication. Don’t think any fan of the sport wants to see China top the roster, am I right in thinking 3 of their 4 swimmers have been/are cheats?

It looks like the battle will be USA, Australia, Great Britain and China:

Larkin vs Murphy vs Xu vs Walker-Hebborn
Aussies and American’s I predict to lead out leg 1, though Murphy has yet to prove himself on the big stage.

Packard vs Cordes/Miller vs Wang vs Peaty
Peaty is capable of splitting almost 2 seconds faster than the rest of them, surely Britain in first at the half-way turn.

Morgan vs the Great one/Shields (wait for trials I guess) vs Li vs Guy/Barrett
Hard to call – the young Li Zhuhao seems a talent (I’m praying a clean one), Phelps if he swims will not surrender, I anticipate Guy and Barretts performances this week.

McEvoy vs Adrian/Dressel vs Ning vs Proud
Britain’s back end weaker but wait for Proud over the 100m this week for a clearer idea. Still, not in league of McEvoy and Ning over 100m and of course, never write of Team USA.

GBswim

Though, as RSA pinpointed, the American’s certainly won’t be the dominant force they’re used to being in this one.

aswimfan

McEvoy as anchor, in the manner of a Campbell, will chase and overtake anyone in front of him who is not ahead by 1-1.5 seconds.

GBswim

Agreed, aswimfan, though I’d say potentially even more so than the Campbell’s, unlikely to lose any speed into the wall. Cate doesn’t quite seem to maintain the rocket-speed for the full 100m.

All about the middle two legs for Australia and what deficit McEvoy has as you said – anything close and he will surely bridge the gap. Are you an Aussie out of interest, aswimfan?

RSASprinter

Let me be very clear – I think that GB has a great chance to win. Probably the most potential of the lot.

The key for them is definitely Peaty on breast. They just need a solid swim from Proud (who will prove himself this year, i am quite sure) as well as a solid one from Guy/ Barrett.

Felix, i love the enthusiasm, and I for one, would like USA to win purely to not let down their undefeated streak, but they have alway had such a solid breast. It seems to be their weakest leg, and with the rest of the world swimming just as fast on every leg, it would appear that they will go in as the under dog this time.

Ofcourse we know what happens when they go in as the underdog..

perkomania

I still think the US will win – Grevers to swim backstroke and be level with Larkin, Phelps butterly, USbreastroker will likely match or beat Packard, and I cannot see Adrian surrendering anything more than a one second lead on the anchor.

aswimfan

GBSwim,
I am Indonesian, but I did my undergrad degree in Australia and worked for a year over there as well. So for me it’s like my second home where I have many friends and some relatives as well 🙂

aswimfan

All three men’s relays have never been as competitive as in this year’s Rio, methinks. No country is an outright strong gold favorite in all three relays.

David Brooks

I agree on that Aswimfan. On the medley, I did some quick calculations using either best relay times from the last year or best individual times from this year or last with a 0.5 allowance and 0.75 for the anchor. Anyway, it gave me 9 countries inside 2 seconds of each other 5 within 1 second. For what it’s worth, the US came out tops by 0.2 from Aus, with GB, RSA and China in close attendance.
But there’s plenty of room to change. Someone said that Phelps would be the secret weapon, but Tom Shields went 50.5 in Kazan, so there’s not THAT much he can make up. He only went 50.1 in Beijing, after all and it’s hard to see that he’ll be much faster in Rio.
The Aussies are quite reliant on McEvoy to go mid-46s which we shouldn’t take for granted.
If the Brits can muster a 51 flat on Fly and Proud can go 47.5 (the more likely of the two) they could be right in it. But Walker Hebburn needs to do better than the 53.2 he put down in Russia.
And as someone said, the South Africans might lead after 3 legs based on the improvement of Reid.

Rafael

David, I will be happy if Brazil get inside that probability, it is time for Guido to go 52 (he was 53,4 with full beard), Martins is improving and he may have a 51 mid on him at least, França was 59,2 already and may have a 58 on him, the free leg can deliver a 47 low I think.. So the medley relay will actually be more competitive than the 4×100 free relay in the end..

g l

Déjà vu all over again. I remember this kind of hype after last Australian trials. What McEvoy did yesterday was amazing. But really? You really think he can beat anyone by 1 – 1.5 second?I guess he locks in for the gold then. Just ask Sullivan an Magnussen.

Felix Sanchez

Is James Guy going to swim the 100fly this week to put down a potential marker for the relay?

The interesting thing about GB’s fly leg is that it obviously a tremendous opportunity, but also potentially a tremendous pressure. If CWH can keep reasonably close, then all signs point to GB leading at half way. At the point – with Phelps et al breathing down ones neck – confidence will play a big part. This is probably why it was a good idea for them to swim Guy last year at worlds. He’d had a great week, and so was ready to deliver the best he possibly could, whereas someone like Barrett may be a slightly faster 100fly swimmer, but not be as ready for such a high pressure challenge after disappointing individual results.

Craig Lord

Yes, on James, it seems so, Felix.

Craig Lord

perko, the US will indeed be the quartet to beat (but not unbeatable) by the time we’re into July, I’d imagine.

Felix Sanchez

Thanks.

David Brooks

g l, I don’t think anyone is expecting McEvoy to take 1.5 seconds off any of the leading contenders. I’m assuming he’ll beat Adrian, for example, by 0.8, which is what he did in Kazan.
Having said that I admit I’m slightly suspicious that this Adelaide pool might be extremely quick. If the Aussies can reproduce these types of times in Rio, a boat load of medals will be theirs.

g l

Well, unless i misunderstood what aswimfan tried to say.
On Adrian, is it possible? Yes, but unlikely. I think Adrian is a proven relay swimmer, unlike Fiegen off course =). On top of that, even if Adrian beats McEvoy, it wouldn’t surprise me this time.

aswimfan

G l,

We were talking about mcEvoy anchoring relays, not about his individual swims.
In Kazan, he went 46.60. Please tell me how many anchors were within one second of him in that relay?
So, is it not reasonable to expect him to run down anyone within 1 second in Rio?
We’ll see what happens in US trials of course. But based on what happened this year and last year, McEvoy would overtake anyone within one second.
He is a very reliable in 4×100 relays, as proven by him in 2014 pan pacs and 2015 worlds.

David Brooks

The next fastest anchor splits in Kazan were 47.41 from Adrian and Morozov, 47.42 from Gilot and 47.59 from Shioura. No one else within a second. MceVoy went in practically level with Japan and Russia and well behind GB and France. So yes, he can swim people down alright.

weiwo luo

Larkin 52.3, Murphy52.6, Xu52.7,
Packard59.0,Cordes58.9,Wang59.0,
Morgan51.1, Phelps50.5,Li50.6,
Mcevoy46.6,Adrian47.3,Ning46.8,
END:
ASU 3:29.0
USA 3:29.3
CHN 3:29.1

g l

aswimfan,
No, not really. McEvoy never beat Adrian by 1 second or more, relay or not. Like i said “this hype”; however,that’s just my opinion and we will see.

g l

And i’m well aware of the context.

Yozhik

Jessica Ashwood was just 0.01 sec off her personal best. It looks like she is confident under 8:20 swimmer. There will be about five swimmers of approximately equal potentials battling for the podium and Jessica can be one of the strongest contenders.

aswimfan

gl,

Last year Mcevoy was on 47.7 form, this year he’s on 47.0 form
I am talking based on the actual current data, which of course may change once US trials are in.
I wouldn’t be honest to myself if I say that McEvoy cannot run down Adrian or anyone else if they dive one second ahead of mcEvoy.

aswimfan

Yozhik,
Jessica Ashwood used to be trained by her grandmother, and then she was trained by Brant Best (the coach of Magnussen at that time) who is not a distance coach, and then moved again to train with Vince Raleigh in 2014.
I don’t know if she’s still with Vince Raleigh, but I wished she were coached by Denis Cotterel who is now coaching Lauren Boyle.
I think with Denis, she could go even faster.

g l

But you do not have data of others yet how do you compare? Hence i said “the hype right after the Aussie trials”. This is Olympic year. Moreover, i think Adrian drop one second from the US trial to the Olympic.
Anyway, i understand that’s what you believe. Just leave it like that.

g l

BTW, what was Adrian fastest split textile? Was it 46.69? Can someone confirm?

aswimfan

g l,
I am basing my predictions on most recent events/performances, no older than 2 years.
Not realistic to base predictions on performances older than two years.

g l

Fair enough; nevertheless, Adrian also swam 46.69 last year i believe.

aswimfan

Where did Adrian split 46.69 last year?

In Kazan, Adrian split 47.41 (4×100 medley) and 47.29 (mixed 4×100 free.. mixed relays performances need to be taken with a grain of salt).

g l

Nope, i was wrong it was in 2013 when the US got DQ

Robbos

g l, Adrian has not swam anywhere near his 2012/2013 times for 3 years now. he is more of a 50 free swimmer now.

Robbos

Love the relays, while on the women’s side, Australia in the 4X100 & US in the 4×200 are very strong favorites, the 4×100 med for women still open. The men’s side, all 3 relays, you can say there is no standout favorites for any of the relays.
France Russia, US & Australia main contenders for the 4X100.
GB, US & Australia fighting for 4X200
GB, US, China, Australia standout for 4×100 med. Exciting times this is Olympic year.

aswimfan

Robbos,
I think Brazil in m4x100 free can also comes into factor. We’ll see clearer picture after Maria Lenk (next week?). Swimming in front of home crowds usually can lift up spirit and do wonders.

Robbos

Yes, ASF, things will change as more & more countries have their trials, Brazil, yes will be interesting!!!!

g l

Robbos,
This is just great. I love the Aussie fans’ enthusiasm =). As you say
‘The Aussies will have Chalmers coming home like a train all over Dressel & hand it over to Magnussen, redemption at the Olympics, before Roberts holds Grevers off at arms lenght & hand it over to Astro boy, who will jet propelled ahead of the GOAT.’

Exciting time indeed!

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