Adam Peaty Maintains Unbeaten Run To Rio With 59.07 Win At Barcelona Mare Nostrum

Adam Peaty by Ian MacNicol
Adam Peaty by Ian MacNicol

Adam Peaty was out in 27.56 and home in a meet record of 59.07, his victory in the 100m breaststroke on the first of two days of racing at the curtain-closing weekend of the Mare Nostrum Tour in Barcelona maintaining a major-moment unbeaten record that started at the Commonwealth Games in 2014 and ran through the European titles of that year, the World championships last year and a continental crown retained this year

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Comments

Rafael

Peaty amazing but I liked França swim he may have a shot at a good 58 for a silver battle and will be important on medley relay

Bad Anon

Hosszu continues to impress, I wonder if there is still enough space on the “chart” to incorporate all these historic perfomance. My gut tells me she’ll uncork unbelievable times come Rio… Kazan was just a glimpse of what she could do… I’ll single out the 200IM where she went 2.07.30 in heats, 2.06.84 semi and 2.06.12 final for gold and wr.. All efforts faster than anyone has been in a textile suit…. Its doubtful anyone will be close to 2.07.30 from her competitiors. SMOC with a career high of 2.08.21 will be the main challenger, 2.08.00 a realistic target, Dirado too possibly in the mix in the 2.08s thereabout…. Ye, if she could muster her 2012 form, even her 2.07.57 peak when she was at her ABSOLUTE best is just a touch faster than KH’s seasons best of 2.07.69…. Only Ledecky is that dominant though she’s 10 years younger and improving… Rio will be interesting…. Maintaining my 5 medal haul prediction…..

aswimfan

Bad Anon,
5 medals? All Individual? I really doubt that.

Yozhik

Hosszu in numbers. The following are Hosszu’s best at 400IM by years since London.
2013 – 4:30.41
2014 – 4:31.03
2015 – 4.30.39
2016 – 4:29.89
All these times are within roughly 1sec interval and demonstrate only slight move. Such closely compacted results in the time frame of four years may indicate everything – from upcoming jump, to the stagnation and the dead end. But most likely we will see something of the kind.
Therefore I don’t see what is so exciting when this swimmer delivers one more time that is in the upper end of this set.
More information can be extracted looking at the splits to see if three were any significant changes. If there were none and all these races look like siblings of the same parents then I will not anticipate any jumps.

Craig Lord

Here’s where interest rests, Yozhik (added to the file):
Efforts inside 4:33 per year (inside 4:31):

2016: 6 (4) 4:29.89; 4:30.75; 4:30.90; 4:30.97; 4:32.25; 4:32.33; 4:32.68 – best 6 2016, all inside her career high in textile from 2012
2015: 5 (1) peak peformance World title 4:30.39
2014: 2 (0) peak pefromance European title 4:31.03
2013: 2 (1) peak performance World title 4:30.41
2012: 1 (0) peak performance quiet moment 4:32.83 tectile career best (OG – 4:33.49)

Bad Anon

Yozhik; barring 2016 those 4.30/4.31 swims were at peak. This Olympic year she’s been 4.29/4.30 in season at low pressure moments essentially racing the clock… With 400IM on day one of the games and swimming fully tapered/ peaked ; one can expect a significant time drop;,at the very least a world record. By how much she’ll break He’s record is what we’ll see… Aswimfan 5individual medals are possible… But whether she swims 5 individual events; I wouldn’t know. She definitely has the potential

Craig Lord

Bad Anon, the first point you make is ‘the’ point and yet you write it as if it were exactly what we should all expect, a fine and plausible explanation – but it is not, far from it.

Bad Anon

Its probably my manner of speaking. All this is unprecedented….

Craig Lord

πŸ™‚ indeed.

aswimfan

5 individual medals is not without precedent. Gould did it, although remains the only one (female) to do so.

aswimfan

sorry, I missed the first point, which is sub 4:33 at small meets. My bad…

Yozhik

So the density of pre-personal best results is even higher than I thought originally. The definition of the record is something that cannot be repeated, but if we have six(!) results so close to each other then I wouldn’t even call it unique but weird. Was that just tries of different strategies that ended up with the same final time or that is the barrier that she is trying to overcome without much success since 2013? I have no clue where she is going from this point. Will this bubble explode with something greater than Ye Shiwen’s controversial record or nothing will happen new that we haven’t seen yet. If she is able already to make a break through, then what stops her from doing that now? One can suggest that she is not in the rush and wants to make a huge wave winning her first Olympic gold with the shocking world record and to get maximum commercial profit from that. That she can put ambitions aside. Maybe. But when Kapas broke her National record there was immediate attempt to get it back.
She is lucky to have this race on the first day when she is fresh. I also think that her best chances for the record are during prelims when there will be nobody around and she can execute her own plan. She isn’t an experienced racer and the final race can happen to be tough. I think the best strategy against her to push her hard at fly leg engaging her to get immediately back at next leg where she is the strongest one. That will result in a weak freestyle. The scenario similar to Olympic race in London. Hosszu having very fast pb at 100 free (53.64), faster than Katie Ledecky and Ye Shiwen, doesn’t swim the last freestyle leg under 1 min. They do. If she gets tired she slows down dramatically. Not that tough.

Attila Riez

This summer for her the most important is to silence the question of an Iron Lady w/o Olympic gold, so I wouldn’t expect miraculous times, much rather a wisely secured double and a whatever place on the podium at 200 back. That’s all for Rio. After that she can go for the only missing WR at any time on a way less stressful meet, as holding them all (long and short) for a few years is her absolute target.

Yozhik

When will we know what she is up to in Rio? It maybe hard mentally to restrict herself to a few events only after swimming successfully so many multi events meets during the season. Low level competition at those meets can play a bad joke. Olympic Games is a completely different animal. Will she be that wise as Attila Riez suggested?

Craig Lord

I’d say that a more likely scenario, Attila. Talk of annihilation is premature…

Craig Lord

Yozhik, ‘unique’ is not an opinion but a fact πŸ™‚ No-one in history has knocked out a 4:29 and 3 4:30s in 4 months or on any one-year period, in-season (nor indeed counting peak performances in any one season).

aswimfan

Yozhik,
Hosszu attempted to get back the 400 free NR because she’s not going to swim it in Rio and she won’t have many meets to try before the Olympics.

About 400 IM WR, she’s already at 4:29 this year as well collecting several 4:30-4:32. I just can’t choose to believe she won’t break the WR in Rio if everything goes well. I haven’t taken a closer look at them but I think all her sub 4:33 swims this year is to try out different strategies, similar to what Muffat did before London with her 400 free. Does anyone still remember the ridiculousness of some her splits?

Craig Lord

If you meant Muffat, asf, 2012 season approach to London, with a 2:04, 1:59 effort in the mix over 400:

200m free

1:54.66 June (world textile best, surpassed by Allison Schmitt’s 1:54.40 at US trials)
1:54.87 March
1:55.21 June
1:55.40 March
1:55.99 February
1:56.21 July
1:56.42 June
1:56.57 February
400m

4:01.13 March (world textile best)
4:02.97 June (2:04 at the 200m mark)
4:03.21 February
4:03.72 June (2:04 at the 200m mark)
4:04.01 March
4:04.42 July

KH on 400IM has been less experimental this year than she has been in the past in terms of boiling herself on the way out but there’s a touch of ‘have tried it all ways’ about her 400IM; whether that will leave her vulnerable on the day or a dominant world-record breaking force remains to be seen, of course.

Yozhik

@asf: I have nothing to support my opinion that Hosszu’s last 400 free race was driven by ambitions to get her record back. But it looks very much like that.
Please, be careful with numbers: Hosszu’s best of 2016 is 4:29.89. It is just half a second faster than her 2013 4:30.41. It will be interesting to know what makes you to believe that she can drop one and a half second to match Ye Shiwen’s 4:28.43? No offence. Just wondering what your logic is.
@Craig Lord: If not to count Ye Shiwen Katinka Hosszu is the dominant IMer since 2013. When swimming at her abilities she is of the same uniqueness as Ledecky with her under 4 min multiple races or Cate Campbell swimming consistently under 53 or Adam Peaty, etc
What really strange is to me that during last four years she produced six practically identical results without making any measurable step further. She did four of them this season. Is it a sign of desperation or she is ready for a break through? Look how different situation is with her PB at 200IM. At this distance the record is the record in it classical form – hard to break, hard to approach. What is going on at 400IM is hard to explain. At least for me.

aswimfan

Yozhik,
Maybe this can help explain: at both 2013 and 2015 world championships, women’s 400 IM were held at the very last day of the program. At the Olympics, 400 IM is on the first day.
I think it is likely that she will at least do a PB.

Craig Lord

Yozhik, much as many won’t hear it these days: age. The average age of winners of the Olympic 400IM is 18. Strip out Michelle Smith de Bruin, who was 27 (Hosszu’s current age) and you have 21 as the oldest ever champion. No matter what accounts for Katinka Hosszu’s gains across the board late in her career, the 400IM is a beast of a demanding event. If we see a world record broken – and more so if we see it smashed – in Rio, we will be looking at a truly off the chart moment on several levels. Time with tell. I don’t accept that her consistency is the same as the pattern we see with Ledecky, Peaty, Sjostrom or even Campbell: the trajectory and graph of their careers is quite different.

Craig Lord

The 400Im was, of course, first day at London 2012, asf, so the comparison then and now will be very much a part of the picture of a swimmer transformed from 23 to 27 years of age.

aswimfan

Yeah, I kinda forgot that she’s already 27. Breaking 400 IM WR for a woman at the age of 27 would be truly epic πŸ™‚

The oldest ever women 400 IM world record breaker is Stephanie Rice, at the age of 20 years and 1.5 months. The second oldest is Katie Hoff at the age of 19 years and 26 days.

Like Craig said, if Hosszu breaks the 400 IM WR, that would be off the chart on epic level. Like, combined Lord of The Rings-Star Wars epic.
πŸ™‚

Barnabas Mandi

I think she has been trying to swim WR in different ways (e.g on the very last day in the Worlds final after 300m 3:26.23 was on the clock and she died on free with 31.97/32.19, 4:30.39) This year she is doing something else, swimming more constant hundreds. And don’t forget that she swam PB in 100m breast (and three times in 50m breast) at Bergen. This can be the key to achieve WR, swimming better in the weakest stroke. We dicussed

Barnabas Mandi

..that the time of prelims seems to be better for swimming WR.

aswimfan

Barnabas,
There is another reason (apart from commercially-lucrative viewing impact) why Hosszu will attempt to break 40 IM WR in the final, instead of the prelims:

Hosszu has never won a single Olympics medal. So, for her first event, she’ll make sure 10000% that she will be at her absolute best in the final to win it, instead of spending too much energy unnecessarily in the prelims without guarantee she’ll break it anyway.
My prediction:
4:31 in the prelims
4:28 in the final.

Barnabas Mandi

Asf, yes that’s also true and very important.

Barnabas Mandi

The answer to the questions isn’t so easy.

Attila, aswinfan,
WR versus Olympic medal. WR means the fastest ever. Katinka regurarly tells that WR is more important for her. An the 5th one would be icing on the cake.

Yozhik,
I agree. On the special day when Ye gets the Hungarian citizenship she will definitely try to swim it.

Bad Anon, aswimfan, Yozhik,
She has 8 individual possibilities for Rio. I think she will swim the two IMs, the backs and the 800 free relay (final). Not only because of the schedule etc., but there’re at least 2 more Hungarian swimmer with A cut in 200 free, 400 free, 800 free and 200 fly.
Leaving somebody at home, after scratching an event, it would be a scandal.

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