Adam Peaty & James Guy Lead Britain Shoal Of 26 In The Pool At Rio 2016 Olympics

The new appointments follow a stirring season for Great Britain in the pool, all but one those in our main image of big chances, James Guy, Adam Peaty, Siobhan-Marie O'Connor, Jazmin Carlin and Hannah Miley, making the podium. Guy fell just shy in his solo events, while he and Miley were among seven frustrating fourths, four of them behind podium placers with doping records to their names, as Furniss noted in Rio - images by Ian McNicol, Georgia Kerr and British Swimming
The new appointments follow a stirring season for Great Britain in the pool, all but one those in our main image of big chances, James Guy, Adam Peaty, Siobhan-Marie O'Connor, Jazmin Carlin and Hannah Miley, making the podium. Guy fell just shy in his solo events, while he and Miley were among seven frustrating fourths, four of them behind podium placers with doping records to their names, as Furniss noted in Rio - images by Ian McNicol, Georgia Kerr and British Swimming

Great Britain Team of 26 Rio 2016 Olympic Games Britain has selected a team of 26 swimmers packed with potential to represent it in the pool at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games after six days of trials ended at the British Championships in Glasgow last Sunday. Leading the charge are World champions Adam Peaty and…

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Comments

Iain

Surprised by the lack of medley relay cover on both sides.

More surprised by the depth of 4x200m picks, given the new rule that all swimmers must participate. I believe Hattersley has the A-time in the 800m free so she will probably swim that rather than the 4×2 heats – I can’t see a team with her (unless we rest one of Coates / Faulkner instead of O’Connor / Miley) making the final.

I’d imagine Ieuan Lloyd will swim the 4x100m free heats (swapped out for Guy in the even they make the final – though this seams unlikely with Lloyd over Barrett) in order to give them some leeway on the men’s side.

John MacLean

Lloyd in particular is a strange pick. Mens 4*2 looks overloaded already with Guy, Scott, Renwick, Milne, Wallace and Kurle.

Is he included for 200IM instead? If so that’s particularly galling for Pavoni.

Craig Lord

I guess, John, they felt it was hard to justify Wallace if you did not take Lloyd. Now starts the difficulty of who o swim in 4x200m free heats and absolutely make sure they qualify …

John MacLean

Assuming Guy sits out the heat the next 4 in line wont have much lee way for making the final.

The team in Kazan qualified relatively comfortably but mainly due to a monster leg from Wallace which you couldn’t rely on to be repeated. Japan, China, Italy and France all missed the final here resting swimmers (or an injured Hagino in Japan’s case) so the qualifying time for the 2016 final should be notably quicker you’d expect.

That all leads to me thinking Guy might need to swim the heat with Milne/ Scott being rested instead.

Iain

The 4x200m is the same day as the 100m free heats and semis, so Duncan Scott is all but certain to be rested. They would probably like to rest Guy (assuming a more in form Wallace this would be fine), giving a heat team of something like:
Renwick – Kurle – Wallace – Milne

That is why I’d use Lloyd in the 4x100m. Realistically we are not going to want to rest three in this relay.

It’s even weirder on the women’s side.

nclswim

I can’t see the logic of Wallace and Lloyd but NOT Pavoni. If they put either of the selected swimmers in medley events then what’s the point of trials?

Martin McEvoy

Can’t work out why Thomas or Kelly isn’t there for the WMedley. Seems a no brainer, though that team’s potential has never really recovered from Sophie Taylor leaving. Pavoni, I think is very unlucky, but clearly his face doesn’t fit. Otherwise, it looks like they’ve gone ‘all-in’ on Guy.

Not a bad team, though…would be very surprised if they don’t improve on London by some way.

Iain

The lack of Kelly / Thomas is very odd. Halsall will not likely want to swim the heats of the medley relay (same day as the 50m free). Clearly we’re supposed to have:
Davies – Tutton – O’Connor – Halsall

But now we’ll have to have a heat team of:
Davies – Tutton – O’Connor – Coates??

As opposed to:
Davies – Tutton – Kelly – O’Connor

Martin McEvoy

Exactly.

katstevens

Coates may not be a bad call for the free leg. She’s improving all the time – 55sec PB at trials – that’s faster than her short course PB! Plus she can now focus on freestyle rather than training for the 400IM.

David Brooks

We all knew the selection policy was convoluted, but these selections are even more perplexing!
Seven men for the 4×2 is overkill and I agree that if Guy doesn’t swim the heat, they risk not qualifying. Lloyd is clearly the luckiest man, though I think he under-performed in that final. From his 100 and 400 times, I was expecting 1:47 low, and perhaps the selectors thought that too?

You can understand taking Wallace, especially if he’s been ill or injured which seems likely. There are spots open in the Medleys, even if that must rub salt in for Pavoni. I assume Lloyd will also get a 200IM swim. I’d be surprised if Milne swims all three freestyle events, so I guess Renwick will get an individual swim too.

The Medley relays are the mystery, and I think they’ve essentially abandoned medal chances in both. For the men, they have no cover whatsoever, which means if they want to swim it at all, Guy has to go in the heats. Why take 7 guys for the 4×2 to give cover for Guy if you then require him to swim the Medley heat? Taking Barrett or James would have made far more sense, especially as Barrett would have given you a viable 4×1 free team too.

And on the women’s side it’s even stranger. By their own criteria the women at the trials did not meet the necessary 2% time. So to justify selection they would need to substitute times from the Worlds. But if I remember correctly, Rachel Kelly swan the fly leg in Kazan. I guess they are using O’Connor and Halsall’s legs from the Mixed Medley, but in that case, shouldn’t the next fastest breaststroker be selected? That would be Sarah Vassey. Obviously there’s little between Tutton and Vassey, but it’s a tough call, nonetheless, especially as Vassey was as close to O’Connor in the breast as Halsall was in the Fly…
Overall, none of these selections really impact medal chances, except perhaps the lack of men’s medley cover, which I still can’t get over.
As it stands their chances look like this:
Gold chances: Guy 200, 400; Peatty, men’s 4×2
Medal shots: Murdoch, Willis, Proud, Men’s Medley, Carlin 400, 800, Halsall, O’Connor, Miley
Medal outside shots: Murdoch 200 (if he gets a swim which is unlikely), Shuttlesworth (if he can manage another 10 second drop), Women’s Medley relay, Wilmott

Craig Lord

Yes, Martin, some issues with that focus on one set of relays and not the other, unless you drop the ‘secondary relays’ altogether (if they swim it all anyway, it just adds to the load of people with serious solo targets to aim for). On Taylor, O’Connor and a 1:07.1 breaststroke holds the potential to get down towards Taylor’s split times, with Fran H more than able to do a low 53 in a relay (but looks like none of that is a real possibility)

Iain

Women’s medley relay best case is probably about
Davies (59.5), Tutton (1:06.5), O’Connor (57.0), Halsall (52.5) which would give 3:55.5

The more I look at the lack of fly cover for the men, the weirder it gets. Barrett should have gone for this plus the free relay IMO.

The women’s 4x200m is really overkill.

David Brooks

Well yes Craig, O’Connor has the potential to get to Taylor’s times, but she wont be swimming the breast as she’s the only Flyer in the squad. So the question becomes can Tutton do 1:06 mid? She might actually be capable, but it’s a leap of faith. As you say, maybe they don’t plan to swim the women’s medley at all, or to abandon pretenses of making the final by giving the likes of Coates a swim?
But giving up on the men’s medley seems ludicrous. I guess Guy will be done with his solo events by then so there’s little harm in giving him double duty, but it’ still a big ask. I think he might be capable of 51 flat if he were fresh, and if Walker-Hebburn returns to 53 flat, and if Peatty can deliver a 57, and if Proud can go 47-mid, they have a medal shot. But that’s a lot of ifs, I admit.

David Brooks

Iain,

I don’t think they had a leg to stand on in not picking a women’s 4×2, because they met the qualifying standard, which I admit was far easier than that for many other events.

Couldn’t agree more on the men’s medley. I wonder if they’d have taken Barrett if he’d finished second instead of James? But if they wanted to justify his selection, they simply had to say they’d taken him for the 4×1 free.

Craig, do you think it strange that Bill Furniss was not quoted in the press release? They were his picks after all…

stabilo

Seems strange. David has made some excellent points I think (7 in the 4×2 and Guy in heats). If I understand it correctly, because of the relay rule, they may need to swim Lloyd in the 200IM in case he doesn’t get a heats (or final) 4×200 Relay spot come Rio. My immediate reaction (which surprised me) was quite of disgust that you’d casually throw around spots to race at the Olympic games to people who in a sense don’t deserve it (e.g. vs Pavoni) just to get around a rule.

stabilo

And agree on the men’s medley.

Steve

David – don;t forget there are no heats on the last day this time round, so medley relay heats are more than 24 hours before the final – means less requirement to keep people fresh. As for the Women’s medley as far as I can tell even with splits from Kazan there was no way of making up a team that went under the 2% so they haven’t directly picked one and will swim it base don who they have available.

Craig Lord

Stabilo, I think it would be wrong for anyone to start racing solo events when those who beat them get left at home simply because of relay picks made outside the top 4. That sends mixed message on quality and values “tough” decisions above tough standards.

Craig Lord

David B: not particularly strange in that officials and performance director usually do the talking on selection day – and this was a BOA not British Swimming day… so Chris Spice was the one speaking for British Swimming. There is a media day at Bath but hardly any swimmers there and it could be there is a chance to speak to Bill F… I’m not there (my choice) so don’t know who is there to say what at this stage.

stabilo

Yes that was my point Craig. I just don’t really understand why Lloyd/Wallace are being taken.

Alex Mason

Bit gutted for Pavoni. We’re quite friendly with his other half and I have met him a few times too (he’s a great bloke) so would have liked to see him go.

He had his funding cut 2 years ago but he’s still persevered and still came out top in the 200 IM with a pretty dominant performance. And in between has won numerous titles, proving he’s not an also-ran.

Its probably just circumstance, but at the same time it also does look like someone up top doesn’t like him.

Team selection looks good though, but really I can only see Peaty and Guy getting medals. Heck a lot of people have practically pinned the 100 m Breast gold on Peaty already. I hope the lad can deal with the un-necessary pressure!

Craig Lord

Alex, I feel for Roberto, too… very sad.
On Adam – more on what he thinks about pressure soon 🙂

Dan Berrisford

Given that only 26 out of a maximum 30 swimmers have been nominated is it possible to add swimmers if, say, they have a great performance at Europeans? Eg, is it possible that James and Barrett get to race again over 100 Fly at Europeans with the winner being supplemented to the team especially if their time comes down?

Iain

David Brooks – of course they should have picked a women’s 4×2 – but with fewer athletes.

Craig – they should absolutely let people swim individuals, they need to do what’s best for the team (making sure relays qualify for finals) not worry about ‘mixed messages’.

gheko

Nothing mind altering about the selections, most who never even qualified! good luck!

gheko

They may win 3 or 4 medals , nothing more!

nclswim

Didn’t they originally specify a team of “up to 30”? As there are only 26 selections at present, is there scope to add in swimmers after the Europeans? I’m specifically thinking of the men’s fly for the medley team – unless they intend to swim Guy in heats too.

Alex Mason

nclswim

Doubt it

The only guys going to Euro’s are the guys already picked! I don’t think they should use Euros as a second suck of the sav anyway.

David Brooks

A few thoughts:

Craig- I have mixed feelings on Pavoni. Bottom line is he didn’t do enough to qualify by right or within the 2%. Wallace and Lloyd were lucky, but they were relay picks. Whether or not they get a swim in an individual event as preparation is neither here nor there. They could argue, that using Kazan times, swimmers 3-7 from the trials met the 2% time and use that as justification.
As I said, I think Lloyd was a step too far, but I’m not sure that has much to do with Pavoni.

Gheko – 3 or 4 medals max? Really? I agree that they might end up there, but that’d by no means their max. I would think Peatty, Guy (x2), the men’s 4×2 and O’Connor are more likely to medal than not. That’s 5.

Steve – good point on the heats, I had forgotten that. On the women’s 4×1 medley though, they were under the time using Kazan swims, as long as they allow mixed medley times. The selection policy does not specify which relays you can take splits from. With those times included, we have 59.64, 67.61 (Tutton), 57.02 (o’Connor) and 53.77 (Halsall) which takes us to 3:58.04, which is well inside the 2% time of 3:59.05… But why Vassey was not selected on that basis, or Kelly on the basis of her Kazan swim, I just don’t get.

Felix Sanchez

I agree with the comments regarding how in selecting so many 200 swimmers GB risk having too weak a team in the heats – but also, it limits their opportunity to use the heat as a swim off for final places. Given that everyone was quite close after Guy, swimmers 2-5 should be in there racing each other. Now they run the risk of not knowing their strongest team.

Craig Lord

Dan, there is no provision in the selection policy for that. The trials were the cut-off and THE ‘selection opportunity’. So, no, unless they change their minds.

Craig Lord

David B, then you’re not Pavino and neither am I but I think I’d find it galling to see swimmers far outside 2% in solos getting to swim my solo race after I’d beaten them fair and square, and that emotion would be all the stronger if those relay picks don’t stack up to anything that speaks to that tough world-class cut off that all solo swimmers were asked to meet. All of which we will know nothing of until ti happens, one way or the other. I still feel it a hard call when a 7th place gets you there and a 1:59 200 free gets you there but a 1:58 and a 4:14 on medley don’t (and yes, I know that would;d not nearly medal – and neither will some of those relays)

Craig Lord

nil, Europeans are not an Olympic election meet for Britain, according to the policy: trials only.

David Brooks

Craig, i don’t really disagree at all. But the only discretionary relay selections were for the men’s 4×2, which is a legitimate medal shot and so they would argue, worthy of putting some resources into.
The women’s 4×2 qualified by rights. Not sure why the target time is so low, but they met the rules and Roberto unfortunately id not.

Craig Lord

I understand the 4×200 needs, David – I’m not entirely sure that 7 men are required (risk involved there, too because some nations will swim 3 best and one reserve at slowest in heats) when the rule states clearly that they must all swim (unless illness intervenes). Understand the 4×200 women, too, but a 1:59 is clearly nowhere near the value of some swims and swimmers left off the team, with 4 places going spare. I just feel there is more weakness allowed in relays and that is not justified where the relay is too far off the pace to consider ‘reasonable chance’. Easy to see a Peaty, a Guy, a Miley etc as most deserving and right up there. Impossibly hard, of course, to suggest that one swimmer is less deserving than another the closer you get to that zone where the medal chance is more hope and ambition than reality. Border lines are often tricky places.

aswimfan

If Wallace swim the IM in Rio, then Pavoni is really shortchanged by the selectors.

It is a surprise that Britain decides to take 7 swimmers for 4×200. How many of those are relay-only?

As a comparison, Australia which this year arguably has better depth in 200 free only selected 6 swimmers for 4×2, and 4 of them already has individual events, so only 2 relay-only swimmer (Daniel Smith and Jacob Hansford).

My guess is the will allow Wallace to swim IM to get him out of relay-only status, but that will be very hard thing to swallow for Pavoni.

aswimfan

This was truly a case of Pavoni at the mercy of the selectors.

aswimfan

This year’s m4x2 prelims will be far faster than last year, where Japan (no Hagino) and France (no Agnel and Stravius) didn’t even qualify for final, and if GBR play it to safe by resting Guy and the second fastest, they may also not get to final.

aswimfan

Remember 2008 Beijing where GBR’s w4x2 were among hot favorites to medal, but then finished 9th in the prelims.

David Brooks

You’re right aswimfan, they can’t take chances and you are right about Beijing, what a mess that was.

commonwombat

My read on GBR prospects at this point.

Gold medal contenders: Peaty (M100brs), Guy (M200free/400free).

Reasonable medal chances: SMOC (W200IM), M4X200, Willis (M200brs), Murdoch (M100brs), Carlin W400/800), Miley (W400IM)

Outside medal chances:M4XMED

Five medals would be my tip, at least one gold/possibly two. My likely “top side” would be 7 medals.

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